This is a post to provide a baseline going forward rather than a comprehensive analysis. We all know where the Charlottesville regional real estate market stands; predicting tomorrow, next week, next quarter is a job unto itself.

For starters- in context … 5 – 8 – 12 – 18 … the “month of inventory” is probably a hair inaccurate due to the inherent inaccuracies of the MLS data (read: data entry by the users) but the MLS data provides the best information from which to draw conclusions and trend analysis for the Charlottesville (or any, really) market.

Right now (right now being 2 January 2009) –

There are 2,196 homes on the market in Central Virginia* with 303 being under contract. Compare these numbers with last year –

As of 1 January, there were currently 2206 properties on the market in the Charlottesville market area, and 400 were under contract. A quick look back at the past three years shows that our market has changed dramatically. On 3 January, there are 2443 active on the market, and 467 under contract.*

Here is my speculation on the numbers, relative to the last few years –

Of the houses that are on the market now, 20% are listed in the Charlottesville MLS as being “New Construction” – I’d bet that that percentage is a bit lower than at this time last year, but also, those numbers do not include the new construction foreclosures that are on the market but not necessarily in the MLS.

*Central Virginia is Charlottesville, Albemarle, Fluvanna, Greene, Nelson, Lousia