Part of a series derived from the Wake-up Call on WNRN on 27 December.

The more I analyze the Charlottesville regional real estate market, the more I am concluding that 2004-2008 are nearly irrelevant to the 2010 real estate market. Everything is different today.

Just for residential real estate in the City of Charlottesville and the County of Albemarle –

Update 30 December 2009: I’m thinking there should be a ? after “Statistical Anomaly” above. I can’t explain it, but that doesn’t necessarily mean it’s an “anomaly.”

Predictions and Prognostications:

The “bottom” of the Charlottesville real estate housing market may come in the third or fourth quarter of 2010. I may be wrong, and reserve the right to alter this prediction until I have the benefit of hindsight. We’re not going to know when the bottom is or was until we are able to have historical relevance.

If you’re buying a home and your not an investor, focus on buying a home. A place to live, to love, to come home to, to enjoy.

2010 is going to bring more foreclosures and short sales in the Charlottesville market. How many? I have no idea, and if I told you, I’d be lying.

2010 is likely to bring more moderated prices, with increased transactional volume.

2010 will see higher interest rates, that will still be remarkably low.

(Full, deep analysis of 2009 Charlottesville area real estate market coming in the second week of January. Please let me know if you would like to see any specific information or data)

More on Home Sales – Charlottesville/Albemarle

2006

2007

2008

2009

More on Home Sales – nationally

New-Home Sales Drop 11.3% As Impact of Stimulus Fades

Home Sales up as Buyers Respond to Tax Credit – National Association of Realtors (read with the biased grain of salt)

Why U.S. Home Sales Are Both Up and Down – excellent article from the Wall Street Journal.

We can’t blame you for being confused about housing. Tuesday, the market cheered a surge in existing-home sales. Then comes today’s news that new-home sales slid 11.3% in November, falling to the lowest level since April.
Up, down. Up, down. What gives?

Though the two reports both concern home sales in November, they aren’t really in synch and so aren’t comparable. The National Association of Realtors records existing-home sale data when the home closes, while the government records new-home deals when contracts are inked.

For home resales, there is typically a lag of a month to six weeks between the signing of contracts and the closing. So most of the November sales reported by the Realtors are based on decisions buyers made in September or October. At that point, lots of people were scrambling to buy homes in time to qualify for a tax credit that was due to expire Nov. 30. (It was later extended through April 2010.)

For the new-home sales, the decisions were made in November, when there was no such scramble to qualify for the tax credit.

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Part 1- Quick Update on the Charlottesville Real Estate Market
Part 2 – Short sales and Foreclosures in Charlottesville
Part 3 – Homebuyer tax credit in 2010 – Who’s Eligible?
Part 4 – Strategic Defaults in Charlottesville – What will 2010 look like?

Podcast of the full hour show and transcript.

Update 30 December 2009: Responding to a comment on the Bubble Blog – My reasoning for marking that as a statistical anomaly (and maybe should have had a ? after it) was due to the spike from 18 to 25 months of inventory from October to November 2009. And then 19 to 32 months … I just can’t explain the spikes, and that is my reason for questioning them. (Further, I don’t trust the MLS data 100% – probably closer to 75% due to user error and manipulations with new construction and such.)
You don’t have to agree with me, or even like me, but I’m not hiding anything and welcome discussion and conversation – it’s how I (and we) learn.