We’ll get through this.
Following up on the Charlottesville Bubble Blog’s noting that foreclosures in the Charlottesville MSA are up:
As expected (I noted in 2009 that foreclosures in Charlottesville would likely increase):
What does this all mean from a market standpoint? Foreclosure activity is likely to increase, but we are nowhere near the foreclosure rates and percentages of the major foreclosure hotspots -parts of Florida, Phoenix, California – which account for a majority of national foreclosures.
Foreclosure Data for Virginia (PDF)
Look at mortgage conditions in Charlottesville at the New York Fed’s map.
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Jim, how would one get the addresses of the 306 properties that went through foreclosure in Q1 2010? The realtytrac data is generally stale and inconsistent (they have lots of houses that were already sold and bought from up to 2 years ago).
I wish I knew; I have a call in to RealtyTrac to find out if/how to get that list. While RealtyTrac provides often stale data, they’re fairly accurate from a trending perspective.
Where does the VA assc of realtors get their data? Wouldn’t they have the list?
craigger –
I’ve got the list; I’m working on putting it into a good format.
I compile my own list, working from the Trustees Sales Notices in the DP, and I have to say: I’ve not noticed this “surge”. It is picking up, and the number of “new” properties (many, many, many fall in and out of the process, lots of canceled auctions) is increasing.
I have noticed that most which actually go to auction seem to get picked up by banks and are fairly quickly listed by RE agents, often at ‘corrected’ prices – well below what the banks are bidding for the payoff of the note. I suppose they think there losses will be less if they market the property than if they let it go through the bidding process, but they do not appear to be “managing” shadow inventory. That appears to take place by leaving it in “owners” hands as long as possible.
I do wonder how VAR and Realtytrac are compiling their data – VA law is pretty clear that Trustees Sales notices are the only official public notice/record required, but even then, the [substitute] Trustees have some latitude in determining the paper of record. I watch Nelson foreclosures and see that some appear in the DP, the News-Advance and the Nelson County Times, but not necessarily always in any one of those.
Virginia included on BI’s list of “15 Places Where Foreclosures Are Still Surging”
http://realcville.blogspot.com/2010/06/15-states-where-foreclosures-are-still.html
Oh, and I forgot to say: I smell the first whiffs of market capitulation.
I would imagine by “surging” what is actually happening is “growing” or “swelling”. To Scotts point and research, I am guessing that these cancellations are a result of potential/hopeful short sale contracts being written this cancelling or postponing the auction. Or maybe the owner has cured the shortfall somehow some other way. What I would really like to know is it really worth all the effort and work and negotiations back and forth to do a short sale with hardship letters, paystubs, tax return evaluations, updated hardship letters, updated paystubs, etc etc blah blah than just letting go? This probably means strategic defaults, likely deficiency judgments, etc. Also, for the buyer…is it really a better deal price wise for a buyer to purchase a short sale or let the property go to auction then go to REO where its almost a normal type of transaction. Are short sales still possibly propping up home prices???