FUD: Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt. There’s going to be a fair amount of that in 2014, and more than ever, it’s going to take real estate consumers (and real estate pros, for that matter) more effort to distill the good information from the bad.

2013 is over. 2014 is here. Goodie. Reflecting on my “6 Things to Watch in 2013,” I’m satisfied that the six things were on point, and all six points – Quality Inventory, Home Prices, Fewer Distressed Sales, Confidence in the market, buyer frustration and a lot more apartments – will carry forward into 2014.

I’ve been practicing real estate since 2001 and each year i’ve said that the market is interesting and different – it’s one of the reasons I continue to practice; every day is a new day with new things to learn.

I’ll be posting individual stories on these “topics to watch in 2014” over the first two weeks of January:

– QRM – Qualified Residential Mortgages (note that many of the rules have yet to be written). Will it be hard or harder to get a mortgage in 2014?

– Interest Rates – will they go up or down or stay flat? This speculation always brings uncertainty into the market

– Inventory – I predict there will be more – more resales and more new construction

– (Un)Employment – this is going to be a key factor in the Charlottesville MSA

– Home prices – Up, down, flat? Can sellers sell? Can buyers afford to buy?

I’m going to touch on these as well in my January monthly note, which, based on feedback, has proven to be equally valuable to those actively in the buying/selling process as well as those who bought years ago and remain in Charlottesville.

All told, I think Lauren at the Newsplex accurately quoted me in her story last week, and what I said well captures 2013 entering 2014:

“For Charlottesville/Albemarle we’re going to see a mix of cautious optimism and optimism,” says Jim Duncan, partner at Nest Realty. …

“This is going to be the second year where a lot of sellers are going to be able to have the legitimate conversation about whether they can sell and not lose money and that’s going to be a real shift in our market,” says Duncan. “I think that’s going to bring on more inventories which are going to be more competition for sellers and more choices for buyers.”

…

“Fewer people in the market are under water, meaning that they are able to sell and not lose their down payments or their savings,” Duncan explains.
…

But as many people continue buying homes in 2014, the amount of renters will also rise.

“We’ve seen people who used to buy now choosing to rent, because they don’t know if they are going to be here for more than four to five years,” says Duncan. “I think there has been a reevaluation of what it means to buy a home.”

Finally, my words from last January remain true:

My advice to my clients, whether they are buying or selling, (sounds silly, I know) starts with listening. Where are they now (in life, jobs, homes), where do they want to be (see previous notes) and where can they get realistically?

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Having recently completed an 800 foot runway extension, CHO is about to spend $4 to $6 million.

Nate Delesline with the Daily Progress reports:

A reconfigured security screening area and new, larger public restrooms — before and after the TSA checkpoint — are among the elements that likely will be the most visible changes for travelers.
In addition, the terminal’s deli and gift shop will be relocated; passenger departure and seating areas will be expanded; electronic gadget charging stations will be added; a business center will be added upstairs; and the terminal’s escalators will be replaced.

Having easy access to such a nice airport is a positive for many who are seeking to purchase in the area. I can’t count the number of times an incoming client has asked about CHO. My response has always been that when it works – departure and arrivals are smooth and on time – it’s a beautiful thing. When it doesn’t, the hubs that CHO feed are nice. 🙂

A question – how much larger will the (can the?) airport grow? How will it affect the area surrounding the airport?

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Derek Quizon at the Daily Progress reports that the University of Virginia is looking to spend well over half a billion dollars in the next few years.

Implementing the University of Virginia’s five-year strategic plan could cost more than a half-billion dollars, much of the money going to faculty, according to school estimates.

UVa’s administration has avoided publicly discussing the plan’s cost, calling it a fluid and unpredictable figure. But a 44-page analysis obtained in an open records request put the estimate at $564 million, almost a fourth of that amount covering faculty pay raises and net salaries for more than 400 new professors, mostly to cover an anticipated wave of retirements. Faculty startup packages — or research seed money — would total almost $200 million.
…
The analysis said about $330 million would go toward faculty. The university expects to replace 295 retiring faculty with 425 new hires. Additional faculty is needed to account for projected enrollment growth, Sullivan wrote in her letter to the board. Enrollment is expected to increase by 1,089 over the five years of the plan, starting next fall and ending in 2019, according to the analysis.

Pouring that much money into the Charlottesville area is likely to have a positive effect, but I’m curious as to what the impact will be on tuition and housing. What plans are being made (if any) to accommodate the new students? Presumably the slew of new apartments on West Main Street will house some of these students. Any plans for new parking garages?

I’m curious too why it took a FOIA to extract these numbers from the University.

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