Q: Is the Charlottesville Real Estate Market Turning?

A: I don’t know. Yet.

I’ve been saying for months that a turn may be coming, and noted it in the July monthly note. And, I’ve been saying for years that I’ll tell you in 18 months what today’s market is actually doing. Hindsight is key; reading current indicators is critical.

• Housing Inventory Tracking
  • “Watching existing home “for sale” inventory is very helpful. As an example, the increase in inventory in late 2005 helped me call the top for housing. …  Inventory, on a national basis, was up 0.5% year-over-year (YoY) in June, the first YoY increase since June 2015!”
• A Few Comments on June Existing Home Sales
  • “Inventory is still very low, but increased 0.5% year-over-year (YoY) in June. This was the 1st year-over-year increase since June 2015, following 36 consecutive months with a year-over-year decline in inventory.”
• Apartment Absorption Remains Steady
• Existing Sales Decrease for Third Consecutive Month
• Black Knight: National Mortgage Delinquency Rate Increased Slightly in June
• Home Sales Extend Slump Despite Economic Strength
  • ““The housing market led the general economy out of the recovery and now it’s leading” it toward a slowdown, said Zillow Senior Economist Aaron Terrazas.Mortgage-application volume decreased 2.5% in the week ending July 13, compared with a week earlier, including a 5% decline in purchase applications, according to an index put out by the Mortgage Bankers Association last week.”
• Housing Shortage Tracker
• Anyone Else Nervous about This? (great comments here)
• US house prices are going to rise at twice the speed of inflation and pay: Reuters poll

Since I wrote this story a couple days ago, I’ve had multiple conversations with colleagues and clients. I ended a call with a realtor friend the other day with, “another one’s coming.” He said, “Yep.” (Click).

Questions about the Charlottesville real estate market? Ask me.

Photo credit.