The Charlottesville Area Realtors’ 2018 Market Report is out

Market data PDFs galore, but what’s it mean to you?

• Greater Charlottesville Area
• Albemarle County
• City of Charlottesville

Short takeaways

• Top-level data is relevant from a public perception/trending perspective, but notsomuch from a “what should I offer?” or “how should I price my home?” perspective.
• Increasing inventory, stable rates, same to rising demand could lead to a more moderate to balancing market.
• A lot of potential sellers are trapped in their homes. More on this later.
• There remains pent-up buyer demand, but not enough affordable inventory.
• Walkable/bikeable homes are likely to be more in demand than those that are not.
• One of the best questions I have recently added to my homebuyer survey is, “what major life events do you foresee as we move through the home buying process?
• Sellers – this might be a useful post for you – Listing and Selling a Home Timeline.

Conveniently, I had a draft post in the hopper.

Well … I wasn’t completely off in my 2018 predictions. Of the 13 predictions I made, I nailed about 8 of them. I was all wrong with respect to the Landmark Hotel; it’s still a deteriorating shell and will probably continue to be so.

2019 is going to be interesting, as has every preceding year in which I’ve practiced.

1. Did you know there are still some sellers who are underwater? I’m talking to many of them now. Many of them bought in 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006… And they’re still not in a position where they can sell and move to the next phase of their lives. This is an exceedingly difficult conversation to have, telling a homeowner that they are in the break-even stage, 10-12 years after they purchased.
2. And then there are people who bought three years ago, and or clearing 15% to 25% profit in that time. And are thinking about selling; their expectations need to be managed completely differently.
3. I recommend listening to this 10 minute podcast looking forward to 2019’s national real estate market.
   1. We could see a bit of a buyer boom in Charlottesville – Albemarle as prices moderate
4. Charlottesville and Albemarle will continue to not do a darn thing about infrastructure – schools, roads, transit – and we are going to suffer because of this.
5. I’ll tell you in 18 months what this year is like, but my advice this year is going to be more important than ever – price the property correctly, particularly if your property is a commodity.

Every situation, every house, every circumstance, is unique and different.

What’s that mean to you if you’re looking to buy or sell next year? Be prepared. Ask questions. Research your market segment. Google and vet everything. Start the process now.

There are going to be homes that come on the market and going to contact in hours or days. And then they are going to be homes that come in the market and sit for weeks and months.

Just some things on my mind as the year begins.

• U.S. Births Dip To 30-Year Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level
  • I was talking to a client about this a few weeks ago … we’re in for an interesting few decades as our population ages, we limit migration, and we’re not replacing our population.
• Good news and bad news about the real-estate market in 2019
  • 9 points in this article, all of which are fairly obvious, but it’s a succinct list, ranging from affordability to interest rates. Here’s hoping new homes actually start to get smaller.
• We’re working on the Crozet real estate market report, as well as our upcoming market video. This is the most recent market video we put out. I think I’m going to do more videos this year, as well as continue the RealPodVA podcast, and my monthly note, which truly gets some of my best stuff, as evidenced by the fact that >60% of people who get it open it every month.
• Note from the podcast – Bart asked a fantastic question last week. Click here to listen to the answer.

Questions?