Yesterday I did the last Charlottesville Reddit AMA of the year. We talked market, growth, infrastructure. Today’s part of the recap is about the Charlottesville real estate market. Have a question? I’m always happy to talk, or meet for coffee or a pint. Reach out anytime.

• For those curious about buying in this market — should you buy? What should you do?
• For those curious about selling — should you sell? Where would you go?
• For those who (like me) wonder how is this sustainable? I don’t know. I’ve said and thought those thoughts for decades. And yet, here we are.
• New resale listings are down ~30% over the 5 YR Average 2015-2019*
• New resale contracts are down ~11% over the 5 year average of 2015-2019*
• UVA are planning to build a ton of new housing in the next few years; I’m curious to see that effect.
• Sellers/potential sellers are always anchored to their prices
• Are people Moving to Charlottesville/Albemarle/Central Virginia for a Climate Safe Haven? – yes
• Is homeowners insurance affecting buyers’ ability to get insurance, and therefore sellers’ ability to sell? Also yes.
• Mortgage rates are ~7%https://www.housingwire.com/mortgage-rates/

The Market Part of my December Note

Analysis, Predictions, Hopes

• Holy cow, that median price increase in Charlottesville+ Albemarle from 2019 to 2023!  I asked two friends to check those numbers to make sure I didn’t make a mistake. $369K to $499K is bonkers. $369K in 2019 to $532K in 2024. Wow.
• This year started fast and slowed as rates ticked up.
• Buyers’ anchors with respect to interest rates are starting to shift — their anchors are more in the 6% – 7% range rather than 4% to 5%. The lock-in effect may be starting to ease.
• I’m seeing more inventory coming to market, and conversations with other agents makes me think that Spring could be a busy one.

Predictions

I don’t know. I have said and written that sentence countless times in my life and career. 2025 is the year for which we are unprepared and no one knows what will happen.

At the end of the day, I want to believe that the real estate market in Charlottesville will be fine. People need shelter. I suspect the next months and years may be hard. Tariffs, chaos, and uncertainty make for a challenging environment. I’d like to think we’ve got this.

That preface aside, predictions:

• The resale market prices and volume will be helped by the increasing prices of the new construction market.
• People will continue to want to move to the Charlottesville area, whether for jobs, semi- or full-retirement (read: grandkids), or as a destination for work from home. See: Migration trends.
• The government/intelligence and UVA sectors should be fine (“should” carries a lot of weight here).
• The first-time homebuyer market will be hard.
• Volume: about the same as this year.
• Prices: between 3% and 5% increase.
• Interest rates: between 7% and 8%.
• We will have more sellers next year than we have had this year.

Hopes:

• More density in the City of Charlottesville.More transportation, land use, housing planning, and collaboration by UVA, Charlottesville City, and Albemarle County.
• Fewer, and more competent Realtors; this career is hard. and fulfilling. See: Walk a mile in my real estate agent shoes, from 2013.
• Interest rates: between 5.75% and 6.5%.
• More people communicate with their local representatives about issues, rather than waiting until the last minute to learn about things affecting their backyards.
• For people to be nicer to each other, recognize that we are in this together, and that harming others does not mean success.