March 2025 Note from Jim | Bootlickers, Market Cracks, and Mistakes

I write a lot, and find it useful for explaining things to myself and to my clients. I write one note a month, and send it by email to you; if you’re interested, please subscribe here.

March 2025’s note is below. Please let me know what questions you have, and thank you for reading.

This month: Cracks in the market? What does “home” mean? Beginner’s mind, licking boots, and a series of mistakes.

Questions about the note or the market? Please ask! 434-242-7140

I had a different note sketched out for March, but I changed it when I got so many questions about the state of the market. So I’m writing more about the Charlottesville market this month than intended. I had a lot more to write; April’s note is already sketched out.

There are a few more of you reading this month; thank you. I hope you like what you read. For those who have read for years, and read almost every one, thank you. For all of you, if you like this enough to share with a friend, thank you.

A recent favorite for a lot of reasons.

The Charlottesville Market

A friend and client texted:

Any major cracks in the local market yet or just still plugging along? No rush; only curious about your thoughts.

Major Cracks? No. Some Cracks? Yes.

We had a meeting recently at Nest and I asked what people were seeing and hearing from their clients. I have my and my clients’ perspectives, but I like to have a wider scope from fellow professionals.

There is a lot of underlying fear in the market that surfaces as people come closer to major life decisions. The tariffs and the chaos that are being willfully inflicted on us from the federal level are damaging buyer and seller psyches. In a word, uncertainty is bad. People and markets crave certainty.

But.

People are still buying and selling homes. Many homes are still going under contract in the first weekend, with multiple offers. Same as I wrote in June of 2024. People continue to get married, pregnant, divorced, kids grow up and (sometimes?) leave home, job transfers — life happens and goes on.

Let’s dig into the numbers

I did an unplanned Charlottesville Real Estate Reddit AMA this week; I learned a bit thanks to the questions.

Albemarle County & Charlottesville City

January 1 through March 10, 2024 vs 2025, just resales*

*I excluded homes over $2M; there were a couple of big ones in the data that skewed things. If you want to see the data, let me know.

What the data tells me is this:

More inventory coming to market
Contracts are down marginally in the County and down about 23% in the City. That 23% sounds like a lot, but it’s only 16 houses.
Median days on the market is trending up. April will give us a better look.
Median sales price is down a touch.
Was the weather a factor? We’ll know by June.

The top-level numbers are interesting, but for a more useful view, let’s look at a narrow band of the market.

$500K to $800K in Albemarle County, at least 4 bedrooms and 2 baths, at least 1,900 s.f. above grade finished, under 2 acres. Resales only.

As of about 7:30 pm on March 11, there are 10 active listings that meet that criteria. 16 pending. 12 have sold so far this year. 144 sold in 2024 that met that criteria.

Last year, the median price for that home type was $649,450.
Median days on the market was 5.
39 were in the Western Albemarle High School District. 73 in Albemarle. 32 in Monticello. For most of my clients, I narrow it down by elementary school district, but for this, I’ll keep it broad.
Of the 144, 29 were built prior to 1990. 44 between 1990 and 2000. 39 from 2001 to 2010, 25 from 2011 to 2020, and 9 from 2020 to 2025 (so far).

For this market segment, moving quickly – whether to make an offer or not – is important.

Price per square foot – For those who like to use price per square foot as a metric, don’t. Minimum $/foot was $130, max was $370 and median was $227.

There’s a reason I tend to not use $/foot as a great metric unless it helps my client. Price per square foot is reasonably helpful for homogeneous properties; most of our market is not that. (NB: I wrote this on a Monday, and Wednesday took an appraisal CE class. Unprompted, the appraiser said almost exactly what I bolded above); I feel validated. 🙂

Next month, I’ll look a bit at new construction in Charlottesville and Albemarle and a less-in-demand market segment.

First ride outside in months. Indescribably needed.

What does “home” mean to you?

Chomps in a bag to go, and a playmat.

A home can be a fantastic investment. And it can be an albatross, financial and otherwise.

My definition of “home” has evolved as I’ve aged.

We’ve lived in this house since 2004; that’s a long time. Part of our current definition of home is this — Our 30-year-old standing at our full pantry asking where the good snacks are. (There are plenty!) Or her taking snacks home, see evidence above, shared with me by my wife. I told this story to a new client the other day, and she said, “That’s like me going to my mom’s house!” Upon further reflection (read: my wife pointed out), that’s what I used to do at my mom’s house.

I guess my point is that part of my definition of home is that it’s a place for snacks.

Next month – homeownership is not for everyone.

Bootlickers

There’s a lot of bootlicking in this world. There needs to be less of it.

I do not have a tie-in to real estate, other than that my real estate life and career are tied to the success of our country, and for those in leadership positions to do what is right.

Less bootlicking, please.

Embracing a Beginner’s Mind

This market is different; every market is. This one though is calling for more patience, analysis, tamping down of fear — mine and clients’ — and empathy and understanding.

I’ve been doing this for long enough that I have a reasonably strong foundational knowledge about real estate practice, the Charlottesville real estate market, and what data points are usually most relevant and provide the most useful context to most of my clients. And what data points are superfluous and will clutter the thinking and conversation. (See above: price per square foot is rarely relevant for pricing conversations.)

When I was nursing my injury (big thanks to my wife for her patience) I tried swimming. It’s hard, it’s different, and it helped take my mind off of not riding. Learning a new thing has been fun, much like learning this market has been. I’m doing similar things in the market, and doing the same things differently.

Assuming that this transaction on this street is going to be the same as the last time I did a transaction on this street or with that agent is the wrong approach. I try to enter each transaction with a fresh mind.

Next month: a thought about ignorance, and witnessing a differential diagnosis

Mistakes

One mistake I made early in my career was not collecting HOA documents. I started collecting about 10 years ago; having a library of hundreds of HOA documents is incredibly useful.
Telling a client what to offer. That’s not my place. Many many years ago, a client asked what he should offer. I gave him a specific number, and he listened to me, unwisely it turns out. Another offer came in, and he lost. I never heard from him again.
Not pushing a client to get a sewer line inspection. There is only so much that I can do, but I’ll do almost anything to have a client not call me after closing to report poop in the kitchen sink.
Not my mistake but one I see often: Listing with an out-of-area agent who does not list in the local MLS. Zillow crosses boundaries, but many MLSs do not. If you’re not marketing to local agents, you’re not marketing to the widest market possible.
When I was a kid, I printed something and hung it in my room. “Make new mistakes.” I’d like to think I’ve learned not to repeat the many mistakes I have made.

Made a big new mistake this month; lots of errors in this note because I did final edit (after the editor made things right!) before 5am. Huge thanks to the reader who let me know.

What I’m Reading

What I’m Listening To

Human-Kind or Human Evil with Rutger Bregman – Trevor Noah
You’ve Come to the Right Person – This American Life

As always, thank you for reading and for sharing.

— Jim

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