Browsing Category Albemarle

Lawrence Yun Came to CAAR

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It’s always great to hear NAR’s chief economist talk. He’s in a tough spot – he’s a great economist. But he’s the Chief Economist for the National Association of Realtors – the trade association for Realtors*. Part of his job is to be both an honest economist and to spin the research positively for Realtors. That said, he’s infinitely better than his predecessor. I’m inclined to follow up on our lunch from a couple years ago to see how, if at all, his perspective has changed. That said …

A few takeaways –

– Rents and renters are rising

– Interest rates are likely to rise this year – he says to 5.3%

– Home sales are up (nationally)

– Home prices nationally have risen 20% (way to fast/high in my opinion)

– Pending sales are down – troublingly so. (see Calculated Risk, Zero Hedge (sales “collapsed” & Big Picture, who uses the term “cratered” referencing pending sales)

(results from my running data)

For Charlottesville-Albemarle, contracts were down 11%:

226 – from 12/1/13-1/31/14 – number of homes went under contract in the Charlottesville MLS
254 – from 12/1/12-1/31/13

For Charlottesville MSA (Charlottesville, Albemarle, Fluvanna, Greene, Louisa, Nelson), contracts were down 7%:

366 – from 12/1/13-1/31/14 – number of homes went under contract in the Charlottesville MLS
393 – from 12/1/12-1/31/13 –

One of the most striking things I heard him say was this:

Some (many?) parts of the Charlottesville area market are doing better, but if you were about to have a day like I’m about to have, you’d know that there remains a lot of pain and suffering – financial, personal and psychological – in our market.

Click through to see the slides from Dr. Yun’s presentation.

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Why Move to Charlottesville?

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I’ll defer to these folks’ story about why they moved to Charlottesville. Of particular note is that “finding jobs” is #6, behind wanting to buy a house with at least a little bit of land, proximity to the mountains … this is a common thing – choosing Charlottesville and finding jobs later. Or choosing Charlottesville and keeping the jobs you have and telecommuting.

It’s a great story worth a few minutes’ read.

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Arthouse Theater + Beer + Restaurant Coming to Downtown Mall

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In the “something cool coming to Downtown Charlottesville” category …

If the number of times this story was shared and discussed on Facebook is any indication of success, the new movie theater on the Downtown Mall is poised for tremendous success.

The Downtown theater, that just successfully drove the Vinegar Hill theater out of business, will now be an art house theater with a bar and restaurant.

Regal Cinema’s movie theater monopoly in Charlottesville has ended, and the new kid on the block is planning to serve up something sure to have local cinephiles salivating: a Downtown theater that offers upscale food and cocktails along with indie film fare.

…

He said the movies the new theater will show will be in line with the mostly indie fare currently screening at the Downtown Regal—which will continue to be the tenant in the space for the immediate future—but he also plans to show some more mainstream films.

Patience is recommended though.

The first step is getting approval from the city’s Board of Architectural Review for a new facade. He’ll present initial plans to the BAR on February 18, but he’s aware it might take awhile to get the O.K.

As it turns out, when my small one and I went to the UVA Women’s soccer tournament in December, we had an occasion to try what I perceive (and hope) this new theater will be.

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Charlottesville a Fast-Shrinking Economy?

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Hmmm … this isn’t good. I wonder how they define “Charlottesville” – is it “Charlottesville, the City of,” or “Charlottesville = Charlottesville, Albemarle, Fluvanna, Greene, Louisa, Nelson”?

9. Charlottesville, VA


> 2013 GMP change: -2.2% (tied-7th worst)


> Change in employment: -1.9% (tied-5th worst)


> Projected 2014 GMP change: 2.3% (tied-144th best)


> Unemployment rate: 4.6% (32nd lowest)

Charlottesville’s economy contracted by 2.2% in 2013 after failing to grow in 2012. This year, however, may be relatively strong for the area. Employment is projected to rise by 1.4%, while GMP is expected to grow by 2.3%. While these figures aren’t strong relative to the U.S. overall, they are a step in the right direction. Despite the two consecutive years of a shrinking economy, the area’s unemployment rate of 4.6% is considerably lower than many other metro areas. Charlottesville is home to the University of Virginia, a major employer in the area.

This does track with some of the sentiments I have observed, if not the data. I’m thinking that the study authors mean at least “Charlottesville + Albemarle” as much of the University of Virginia is in Albemarle.

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Why Are Charlottesville Home Prices So Much More Expensive than Where I’m From?

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moonrise 2

I hear this a lot. “Why are homes in Charlottesville so much more expensive than where I’m moving from

I hate to say this, but the answer starts with because. And expensive is relative – it depends on where you’re coming from. But yes, we tend to have higher housing costs than many other parts of the state and country. But we also offer a remarkable location – close to hiking and mountains, a short drive or train ride to DC, Richmond is less than an hour away.

But I also say this having represented buyers who have chosen to not relocate to the Charlottesville area because I showed them homes that just didn’t fit what they could get back home, I’ve represented buyers who have made compromises on what type, style, size home, and I’ve represented buyers who’ve found exactly what they were looking for.

– Because Charlottesville truly is a great place to live.

– Because of supply and demand – a lot of people choose to live here.

– Because quite a few people see Charlottesville as a destination location – they either move here and keep their jobs in Seattle or LA or Boston or – or they are retired or semi-retired. Many want to live in a college town where one of the biggest negatives is choosing between the things to do in your free time.

– Because CharlAlbemarle is always on some kind of best list .

– Because you can get most places in 20 minutes or less. (when I was a kid, it was 13-15 minutes, and today sometimes that 17 minute drive takes 40 – but still.)

Because. And I’m not the only one … Spend a few minutes reading the great comments and discussion we had about this topic on Twitter and Facebook. It’s truly a great conversation with insight from people who live here, grew up here who no longer live here and clients whom I’ve represented. Really. Read the comments.

If you’re curious, here’s some data I pulled – just for single family homes in Charlottesville, Albemarle, Fluvanna, Greene and Nelson Counties –

– Sales and Inventory history 2001 – 2004

– Sales and Inventory history 2005 – 2009

– Sales and Inventory history 2010 – 2014

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Albemarle County Real Estate Assessments are Out (2014)

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I figured the assessments would be released yesterday; I was trying to research a property for a client and the Albemarle County GIS site was down. It’s up now.

If you’re curious what real estate assessments mean, this is a good description from a couple years ago.

Assessments are not a reflection of market value. They are a backward-looking assessment of what the market value may have been at the time the assessor looked at the house (most likely online, and not in person). The assessor may or may not know the condition of the property, the condition of the property’s neighbors, may not consider the traffic noise, crime stats, proximity of sexual offenders, level of inventory, smell of the neighborhood, etc. etc. etc. Assessments are why you pay taxes on.

2013’s post on Albemarle County assessments in which I recounted the previous years’ posts on assessments. I won’t re-link them again today, but I will re-state what I wrote last year:

5 Reasons why real estate assessments matter:

1) The County bases their budget on property tax revenue.
2) The assessed value is the value upon which property owners pay taxes.
3) Buyers look at assessed values as a measure of market value … but really, it’s a point in the equation, but are neither a definitive point nor a necessarily accurate one.
4) Also – Virginia, unlike some other states, by Statute requires localities to assess property at 100% of fair market value, based on an objective analysis of the property’s fair market value.
5) Sellers look at assessed values and wonder if buyers will think that the assessment means their home is worth X (it doesn’t).

When the County sends out their press release describing the breakdowns of assessed value by region within Albemarle, I’ll post it.* My assessment is up 14%; I’m curious to see what the general trends county-wide turn out to be.

As promised, the County’s press release:

Albemarle County is sending 2014 reassessment notices to taxpayers this week reflecting changes in property values resulting from the County’s recently completed annual reassessment. The 2014 reassessments show changes in property values resulting from stabilization of the real estate market being experienced locally as well as nationwide. The change in the County’s total “Fair Market Value” base has increased by 1.28% over the 2013 base. Reassessment changes by property type are:

–  residential (less than 1 acre)- up +1.98%
–  residential (1 acre to 19.99 acres) – up +0.40%
– rural (20 to 99.99 acres) – down -0.14%
– rural (100 acres and over) – down -0.29%
– commercial property  – up +3.64%
– multi-family  – up +0.99%

As indicated above, results for different property types may vary significantly from the overall percentage decline. The reassessment figure reflects the values of existing properties and does not include the value of new construction. New construction is valued at $100,000,000 for the reassessment period.

Virginia by Statute requires localities to assess property at 100% of fair market value, based on an objective analysis of the property’s fair market value, independent of any influence on the part of the County or the County Board of Supervisors. Albemarle County continues to consistently rank among the most accurate jurisdictions in statewide Assessment/Sales Ratio studies conducted by the Virginia Department of Taxation.

The average annual reassessment changes for the magisterial districts are as follows:

Rio – +1.75%
Jack Jouett – +3.64 %
Rivanna – +2.85 %
Samuel Miller – +1.58 %
Scottsville – +0.27 %
White Hall – +0.49 %
Town of Scottsville – +1.49 %

The new assessments will be reflected in the real estate bills which will be mailed in late April, 2014. County officials recommend that anyone who would like more information or who wishes a review of their assessment to contact the Office of the County Assessor at(434) 296-5856. Real estate assessment information can be found on the County’s Website, www.albemarle.org, under Online Services, GIS-Web.  Among information available are property descriptions, maps and sales information. The Assessor’s Office provides computers that can be used by the public during normal business hours.

There is a process in place to appeal disputed reassessments. As a first step, taxpayers are encouraged to contact the Assessor’s Office to insure the correctness of County records and to receive an explanation of the basis upon which the valuation was made. The deadline for requesting a review with the Assessor’s Office is February 28, 2014. The Assessor’s Office recommends that citizens make an appointment as walk-in are handled on a first come first serve basis. If a property owner does not receive satisfaction with this step, further appeal may be directed to the Board of Equalization appointed by the Board of Supervisors, which is comprised of Albemarle County citizens who have completed training by the Virginia Department of Taxation and who meet on a regular basis. All appeals to the Board of Equalization must be filed by March 17, 2014.

Applications for properties qualifying for land use assessments will be accepted until March 1, 2014. A new application, per parcel, is needed to enroll in the program or when a property enrolled has a change of use of acreage from that previously qualified. A new application is not needed if your property is currently qualified in the land use assessment program.

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