After a closer look at the VAR’s July numbers, it seems that “median price†is really not at all indicative of market trends, which seem poor and getting worse with each passing month in this area.Consider, average days on the market of 86 marked an increase of nearly 50% from the same month in 2006 and 10% from June ‘07…. Dumping massive supply into a rapidly declining market doesn’t seem to make much economic sense.And from Luke:As a real estate amateur and an intelligence professional, I know one thing for certain, the Defense Intelligence Agency is moving a sizable portion of its operations to Charlottesville, creating a significant number of high-paying jobs and likely keeping prices inflated as they have been over the past few years, so I have no fear in buying a house right now, in fact I’m building one…. In short, the Dillon rule does indeed hinder our ability to manage growth, but the county is not without tools to address these issues.For that matter, Governor Kane [sic] has mentioned a willingness to work with local governments to give them more tools to address the issue of sprawl…. If we’re going to grow (and we seem to be) we should grow in the right areas, and we should grow in a smart manner – with infrastructure as well as houses.As noted on Brian Wheeler’s site last month:For the SFD permits detailed above (last 12 months), 61.4% were in rural areas and 20.25% were in the Crozet designated growth area …
Browsing Category Growth
A foray into Albemarle politics
The opportunity to participate in the discussion of growth in Albemarle County came about recently, and after a bit of deliberation I decided to take it. Better to exercise my voice and be part of the process.MissionThe Fiscal Impact Advisory Committee (FIAC) is appointed by the Board of Supervisors (BOS) to provide advice to the Board of Supervisors on the development, implementation, and uses of the County’s official tools for measuring the fiscal impact of development. The Committee’s goal is to foster a well-informed, thoughtful, and constructive dialogue on the fiscal impact of development, thereby contributing to rational decision-making. Fiscal impact, in this context, refers to the dollar value of the public costs and revenues associated with development….ResponsibilitiesEnsure that the assumptions behind the County’s official tools of fiscal impact analysis are open to scrutiny and discussion from a cross-section of community interestsEnsure the community of the credibility of the County’s official tools of fiscal impact analysis, by providing oversight and management as the County uses its official tools of fiscal impact analysis to analyze various growth scenarios and development projectsIf anybody has insight or advice, I’m all ears.
What do we do if the population exceeds optimal levels?
As mentioned in June on Charlottesville Tomorrow’s site in June, and approved by the Board of Supervisors, Advocates for a Sustainable Population (ASAP) have received an additional $11k from the City of Charlottesville (you may have to scroll down) for their study to research what is the “optimal population” for the City and County. As I’ve noted before, and I may be simplifying the matter – how does the government enforce an “optimal population”?… Defining and enforcing this “policy” would be a multi-edged sword – 1) those who currently reside within these areas would probably see their property values rise but1b) there are fewer buyers out there as the mortgage money dries up2) the surrounding counties would see more development as growth is pushed upon them – but just so long as it’s not in Charlottesville/Albemarle, I guess that’s OK (note the sarcasm)We all share resources…. Pitting localities against either other – from a real estate market, from a political and from a social point of view is counter-productive and divisive.
If you want to know about growth issues in Charlottesville/Albemarle
Check out Charlottesville Tomorrow’s 47-page study KEY FINDINGSWith respect to policy issues related to land use, infrastructure, taxation, transportation, and leadership, the survey results indicate: * There is strong public support for policies, like phasing or time based zoning, that would set a schedule for the rate of new development in Albemarle County’s rural areas…. * 81.4% of respondents indicated they support the use of tax dollars to purchase rural development rights if it would permanently protect the land with conservation easements…. When asked about government’s efforts to have developers pay their fair share for infrastructure, 42.2% of respondents were satisfied.Local politics, growth and infrastructure issues impact the real estate market in often dramatic ways – every one of these issues affects buyers’, sellers’ and other residents quality of life.Interesting notes- We need to keep and protect our rural countryside from becoming over developed – 93.9% In order to permanently protect rural land from development I’d be willing to pay a bit more in real estate property taxes – 57.5% Property owners should be able to do what they want with their land, regardless of the impact on neighbors. Decisions about keeping our rural countryside intact should be left entirely to the owners of that property – 33.5% So, we need to protect our countryside, but only a think majority is willing to pay to protect that countryside.
Albemarle Place delayed at least a year
… I am told by a little birdie.
Albemarle’s growth so far this year
Brian Wheeler’s excellent analysis continues. Two things surprise me – 1) Building permits don’t seem to have dropped off in light of the market shift. 2) This year, far more permits have been issued in the development area versus the rural area – a very good thing. Gratuitous endorsement: Brian is running for re-election to the School Board and has done more for transparency in local government than anyone else I can think of.
How many Town Centers do we need in CharlAlbemarle?
Just in CharlAlbemarle — Hollymead Town Center (29 North)- Old Trail Town Center (Crozet, West of Charlottesville)- Belvedere Town Center (North Central Charlottesville) – link not yet live- Albemarle Place (Central Charlottesville)- North Pointe (29 North)- The Downtown Mall (City Center)- Eventually there will be one in or around the Biscuit Run development to the South of the City.Update 05-02-2007: Here is my first attempt at Google MyMaps; it was too easy.What are the effects and impacts of the proliferation of town centers?… More shopping.From a real estate perspective, these may have very different and varied effects:- One will be that some buyers will want to be as close as possible to the town centers to take advantage of the “walkability” of what these town centers will offer.- On the flip side, the town centers will drive perhaps an equal number away from these town centers; these people want access to the shopping offered, but don’t want to see or deal with the town centers and the traffic, congestion, sounds, smells, etc. on a daily basis.- And even further, some will be driven further out in the rural areas so that they can get as far away as possible.What is the common denominator?… Any transplants to C’Ville who are willing to share their perspective?Update #2 05/02/2007 – Interesting and relevant article from the WSJ blog today.Right now, my husband and I are still renting, but we have started to think of making the big purchase…. I have no problem moving somewhere for a year or two and then trying something different; my husband dreads moving and wants to hold off until we find the perfect place – so we will stay put for a while.