Charlottesville's Real Estate Blog. Buyer &/or Seller Representation, Real Estate News
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For new home sales and housing starts, it appears the bottom is in, and I expect an increase in both starts and sales in 2012.
I place a great deal of credibility in Calculated Risk; I’ve learned a tremendous amount there over the years. I’m not certain the bottom is quite here in the Charlottesville area, but I’m inclined to think we’re close.
I’ve said it before. Case Shiller’s Perspective on the Charlottesville real estate market summed up in one phrase: it doesn’t exist.
As I said this morning on Google+ –
So we’re getting ready to widely release Nest Realty’s 4th Quarter 2012 Nest Report … there’s some interesting data and analysis in there.
Combined with the reports I’m hearing from agents about the massive traffic at open houses, I’m thinking that *pockets* of the Charlottesville – Albemarle real estate markets are likely to see some stability & even price increases this year.
As far as Case-Shiller and the NAR? They don’t track our market. They’re good insofar as they give insight into other markets and their respective psychological impacts are interesting but not particularly relevant to our local market.
Here’s Nest’s 4th Quarter report – (Download your copy of the PDF here)
What we’re seeing is this:
– Buyer activity is up. Way up, over the past few months and years
– Multiple offers on desirable properties are becoming almost common place
– Foreclosures and short sales are going to be with us for a long time
– Buyers want to buy. They just don’t want to buy crap or overpriced homes.
– (some) Sellers are becoming more realistic.
“Normal” is “now”.
– Human settlement patterns (where people are living and working)
– Gas prices
– Expectation of permanence/transience
– Interest rates
– Property tax rates
– Monetary supply
– The internet’s availability and impact
Those are just a few of the ways that 1999 differs from 2011, and makes application of “normal” challenging.
Here’s something that hasn’t changed – people need homes. Buying a house is a choice, and one that comes with greater responsibility than renting – you’re accepting on the maintenance, the permanence, the mortgage, the community, the risk. If you’re not ready for those, don’t buy a house. If you’re ready to buy a home, do your due diligence and consider it.
“New normal” is a shifting term, applicable to virtually every evolving industry.
Heck, I’ve been seeking “new normal” for years.
But I thought I’d look at the data and briefly compare the 1999 Charlottesville area real estate market with the 2011 one … keeping in mind that so many things are different, thus negating in a lot of ways the comparisons.
I’m going to try to have my analysis sorted out soon, but wanted to put this up this evening. Dig in. Have fun. CAAR’s Year End (2011) market report
Maybe, says Forbes. I’ll be publishing local perspective this week.
Or, we could be a long way from bottom.
Either way, I’ll let you know with authority and confidence in 18 months where we are today. The only way to know is with sufficient hindsight.
Put simply – buyers want to buy. And a lot of them are tired of waiting.
Categorizing the Charlottesville real estate market:
– 20% distressed
– 20-30% is overpriced
– 20-25% is stuff that no one wants to buy
– 20% is in great condition, priced really well and is selling in under 60 days. *
Right now* there are 2122 homes on the market. 410 are currently under contract; 177 (43%!) have continuous days on market of under 30 days and 219 (53%) have CDOM of under 60 days.
So far* in 2011, more homes have sold this year in Charlottesville and Albemarle than sold last year in the same timeframe. Who knew?
Listen to the podcast of my discussion with Coy Barefoot as we look back at the 2011 Charlottesville real estate market and a look forward to 2012.
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I’m not saying that the depression is over, but the fact that more homes have sold in Charlottesville and Albemarle, year over year, is a good thing. That the outlying counties’ numbers are down is due to a slew of factors, from foreclosures and short sales to people acting on their desires to be close to stuff. Walkability=Affordability=Profitability=Livability
Attitudes of Young Americans Bode Ill for Housing Recovery (Forbes) – This is something that is going to affect all real estate markets, not just Charlottesville’s, for years (decades?).
The lack of assets isn’t the only encumbrance to housing: Echo Boomers value education, people and leisure more than other American generations. Of the Echo Boomers I spoke with, 13% were homeowners, yet less than a third reported interest in owning a home someday (with female Echo Boomers wanting homes more than male Echo Boomers). They preferred graduate degrees, living in social areas (not suburbs) and freedom instead of homeownership. A few of these Echo Boomers will need a decade to pay off their student loans after which another large loan, like a mortgage, might lack appeal. And while suburbs seem to offer community and safety, they also add transportation costs with a lack of social diversity.
Goodbye, 0-5 Buyer -OR- Finance a House or an Education? (RealCentralVA)
People are staying in their homes longer – whether by choice or necessity. If selling is not a viable option, you need to fall in love with your house all over again.
Residential Remodeling Index at new high in October (Calculated Risk)
Now in Vogue: Practical Remodeling (Wall Street Journal)
UVA Credit Union’s Power Saver Loan–
These new PowerSaver loans will offer qualified homeowners up to $25,000 to make energy-efficient improvements of their choice, such as replacement doors and windows, metal or asphalt roofs, HVAC systems, water heaters, insulation, duct sealing, solar panels, ground source heat pump systems and more.
Interest Rates are still historically low – and they won’t start to matter until they rise.
Shadow Inventory – What will it’s affect be on the Charlottesville real estate market?
