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Charlottesville MSA Real Estate Market Update – August 2011 – How This Matters to You

Pending Contracts in the Charlottesville MSA are UP, year over year. But if you’re looking to buy a home in the Charlottesville area or if you’re trying to or thinking about selling, this number doesn’t matter to you one bit. What matters is – what is the market doing on my street? In my neighborhood? In my elementary school district? What happens at the top level – national, state, MSA, locality – is darn near irrelevant other than from a psychological point of view.

Here is why the top numbers don’t matter … there are extremes and outliers everywhere; today’s example:

A house just went under contract in the Bentivar neighborhood. A first look says that the house came on the market at $595k and went under contract in 6 days. If that house sells for $595k, the MLS data will show that it sold for 100% of its asking price. Which isn’t accurate.

  • The house first came on the market in February 2010 for $1,100,000.
  • Reduced to $835,000
  • Came back on the market at $833,000
  • Reduced to $735,000
  • Came on the market for $595,000
  • Went under contract quickly.

Look beyond the numbers presented to you. Here and everywhere. Good real estate professionals don’t try to hide the information, but it takes work to discover what’s actually happening.


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Goodbye, 0-5 Buyer -OR- Finance a House or an Education?

We’re in the midst of a reset in the real estate market cycle. Every market is different, and we’ve been seeking “new normal” for quite some time.

Here’s part of the new normal, not just in the Charlottesville real estate market, but across society as well. (search for “new normal” on RealCentralVA for context)

The buyers who would buy and sell in a zero to five year timeframe are gone. In other words, the stepping stone of the “buying a home” lifecycle has been pushed further.

First time homebuyers, when they do choose to buy, are buying at later points of their lives – once they’ve established themselves in their careers* and found their mates if they so choose, and have determined that their lives – kids on the way, jobs … some sort of stability.

Many of these first-timers have either seen their friends and families decimated by the housing market or have experienced it themselves in selling or trying to sell – either normal transactions, short sales or foreclosures.

…

A report last fall indicated that student debt in America had reached $850 billion, nearly $25 billion more than the nation’s consumer credit card debt load.

Homeownership is a long-term decision. Given the choice – which are the next (current) generation of homebuyers going to choose –

Higher education or a home of their own?

The new normal, for the foreseeable future, is one without the 0-5 year buyers, one with an extended lifecycle of homeownership. And you know what? If we can just get the government to get the hell out of the way – stop making secret loans to banks, stop toying with being landlords, stop catering to the banks, stop trying to manipulate mortgages, and let the market work.

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Friday Chart – Good News – Charlottesville Housing Inventory Drops

I know, it’s Thursday, but I’ve been playing with numbers all morning … What follows is a sample of market reports to come in the coming days, weeks and months.

– We still have too much inventory
– New listings coming on the market appear to be trending down; this is a good thing
– I love market data, and this new tool looks promising. I’ll figure out best ways to use it as quickly as possible.
– I still don’t trust some of the data in our reports; the data is only as good as the systems and the people; days on market and “sales price to original list price ratios” are still skewed for a variety of reasons.
– “Greater Charlottesville” = Albemarle, Charlottesville, Fluvanna, Greene, Louisa, Nelson … look at these numbers for trending analysis only. Your market is local. Think about it … while a $200k two bedroom home in Belmont, a $750k home in Ivy and a new single family home in southern Greene are all included in these numbers … and all are affected differently by the market.

What questions do you have?

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Categorizing the Charlottesville Real Estate Market

The Charlottesville real estate market can be broken down into at least four categories.:

– 20% distressed

– 20-30% is overpriced

– 20-25% is stuff that no one wants to buy

– 20% is in great condition, priced really well and is selling in under 60 days. *

* “Right now” is Tuesday, 2 August. In the Charlottesville MSA, there are 2312 homes on the market, 482 properties are under contract. 266 have Days on Market of under 60 days. 257 have Continuous Days on Market of under 60 days.

Further, just because I was curious, 766 properties on the market have been on the market for under 60 days.

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Charlottesville MSA Median Prices 2000 through 2011

Bear with me … I’m trying to make sense of the market.

Continuing my theme of looking at the Charlottesville real estate market data from a longer point of view, lest we track the housing market too closely

It seems that we’re back (broadly) at 2004 – 2005 housing prices in Charlottesville.

Single family home median prices for Charlottesville MSA:

Median Sales Prices - Single Famliy Homes - 1st 5 Months - Charlottesville MSA

Attached home median prices for Charlottesville MSA:

Attached - Median Sales Price

I left off Greene and Louisa as they have negligible attached home inventories.

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