Browsing Category Market statistics

Seeking a Stable, Consistent Volume of Real Estate Transactions in Charlottesville

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I look at too much data. I admit it. In this post, I’m posing just a question – when looking at the past ten years of real estate data** in the Charlottesville, Virginia area, what is a “normal” level of real estate transactions and is there a correlation between transactions and population growth? And how can my buyer and seller clients (and readers) apply this knowledge?

My hypothesis is that once we achieve a stable, consistent volume of real estate transactions – equilibrium if you will – we’ll be able to definitively say that we reached “bottom” or “stagnation” and start to consider such things as “appreciation of real estate values.”

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Real Estate Round Up – Charlottesville Real Estate Market Update – May 2011

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I’ve written a lot, looked at a lot, and analyzed a lot. Over the past two days, I have looked at real estate market data specific to the Charlottesville MSA for nearly six hours (and I still have quite a bit yet to come, including updated median sales price numbers).* I’ve written thousands of words, and thought that a summary post may be useful.

Part One: Charlottesville MSA – Single Family & Attached Homes Placed Under Contract – First Five Months

Part Two: Charlottesville Real Estate Market Update: Transaction Volume for 2000 – 2011

Part Three: What’s Selling in Charlottesville? Single Family, Attached homes or Condos?

Even this real estate analysis is too broad; to really know what’s happening, you (and I) need to study the market segment relevant to you. Every segment is different and unique.

Broadly:

– Single family homes in Charlottesville MSA: sales up 1.5%, median sales price down 4%

– Attached homes in Charlottesville MSA: sales down 16%, median sales price down 3%

– Condos in Charlottesville MSA: sales down 17%, median sales price down 3.5%

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Charlottesville MSA – Single Family & Attached Homes Placed Under Contract – First Five Months

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Note: if you have formatting issues, please let me know; I’m trying to embed the interactive charts, but have had issues with them in the past. They may go away without notice.

– Barry Ritholtz asks – How bad is housing?

– Case Shiller says:

– Consumer Reports says: Home prices have slid more than during the Great Depression

– The Wall Street Journal says: Why It’s Time to Buy

What does all of that mean if you’re trying to figure out what’s happening in the Charlottesville, Virginia real estate market?

Let’s look at the data*:

What I’m seeing:

– There is no consistency in the market, except for a few truisms.
– Things that shouldn’t sell do.
– Things that should sell don’t.
– Buyers are buying with minimum 5 to 7 year time frames in mind, and many are looking for 10 – 15 years.
– Buyers are being very selective, because they can be.
– Some buyers are looking for attached homes that have little to no maintenance; but … high HOA fees are deterring buyers. $200+/month is not a good thing (usually).

Truisms:

– Properties must be priced right in order to have a good chance of selling.
– Properties must be in as close to perfect condition in order to solicit the best offers from those seeking to (and many are) pay a fair value.
– Price + Condition = Good chance of selling.
– Sometimes the price is right, the condition is right, but the buyer just isn’t there. yet.
– Market capitulation isn’t quite here yet.
– Inconsistency rules.

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Charlottesville MSA Homes Listed, Sold and Put Under Contract

Charlottesville Real Estate Market Update: Transaction Volume for 2000 – 2011

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Part Two of … See Part One – Charlottesville MSA – Single Family & Attached Homes Placed Under Contract – First Five Months

Looking at the Charlottesville MSA for transactional volume history … what we need is stability and consistency. Once we can reach a relatively stable number of transactions, I think we’l be able to start to see normalcy, whatever that is … maybe ~ 1000 transactions per year?

For the first five months of the year, what we’re looking at here is everything – single family detached homes, attached homes, new construction, resale, condos …

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What's Selling in Charlottesville/Albemarle? Single Family homes, attached homes, condos?

What’s Selling in Charlottesville? Single Family, Attached homes or Condos?

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Part Three of …

One of the most common questions I get is – what is selling in Charlottesville and Albemarle? Condos? Attached homes? Single Family? A look at the data gives a look at some answers …

NB:

– I’m keeping this focused on only the City of Charlottesville and the County of Albemarle as that is where the bulk of the attached homes and condos are located.

– Single family homes have come to be more affordable, leading to a decline in transactional volume within the condo and attached home segments of the market.

– 2005 was very good for condo conversions; now the condo conversions have been decimated in value.

– Attached homes can be very attractive – newer ones in good condition price right, especially so.

– Homeowners Associations’ fiscal health is likely to be more and more of an issue as this market correction continues to correct.

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