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) Looking at the baseline in January for Charlottesville and Albemarle , we will hopefully be able to get a feel for what the Charlottesville real estate market is doing.
Anecdotally, there are a lot of buyers in the market, but a lot of sellers are looking at being under water … we’re not yet out of the woods.
I’ve spent the day at a Charlottesville Realtor Economic Summit, and the following was a very good presentation by Barry Merchant, the chief economist for the Virginia Housing Development Authority. More analysis will come later this evening, but I wanted to put this up in the meantime.
I’m not saying that there are “lots of buyers who are buying,” but there do seem to be “lots of buyers” who are kicking the tires, and some of them are writing offers (and believe it or not, some of these offers are becoming Contracts). Take the following anecdotal evidence for what you will – 1 – I’m busy (and still taking on new clients), showing a lot of houses all over the City of Charlottesville and Albemarle County (for some reason, my clients seem to cluster, no one in Waynesboro or Fluvanna yet this year) 2 – A Real Estate III agent told me that she had fourteen groups of interested folks through one of her public open houses last weekend – all with no advertising.
Ergo – is it reasonable to conclude that a house that has been on the market in Albemarle County (I’m not looking at any other market) for at least one year should now be “worth” at least 15% less than its original asking price? Looking at three randomly selected sold properties in Albemarle County in that price range in the past three months, the list-to sell percentage was a bit more stark – 85%, 75%,74% – sold for less than the original asking price.
Compare these numbers with last year – As of 1 January, there were currently 2206 properties on the market in the Charlottesville market area, and 400 were under contract. … * Here is my speculation on the numbers, relative to the last few years – Of the houses that are on the market now, 20% are listed in the Charlottesville MLS as being “New Construction” – I’d bet that that percentage is a bit lower than at this time last year, but also, those numbers do not include the new construction foreclosures that are on the market but not necessarily in the MLS . 
*Central Virginia is Charlottesville, Albemarle, Fluvanna, Greene, Nelson, Lousia
Agent Update – Only for Charlottesville, Albemarle, Fluvanna, Greene and Nelson:
Not having the membership numbers for the past several years, I omitted the “zero” column …
The number of Realtors in the Charlottesville area who have managed to do between one to five sides per year has remained fairly consistent over the past three years, with a surge at the height of the boom.
The productive Realtors seem to be suffering the most.
* To answer questions I get frequently – yes, I do make a living as a Realtor. As of this writing I am the 32nd most productive Realtor in the Charlottesville area. I hate writing that, but it’s a fact. (and our office is the 8th most productive office – not bad for a very small – ~7 agents – office)
Buyers and Sellers – when interviewing Realtors, do your due diligence and ask your prospective representation how productive they have been in the past 12 months – more on this in a later post.
Thank you sincerely for reading. Please let me know if you have any questions/comments/corrections.
2 – I’m really, really hoping that there is some sort of statistical or data entry anomaly that accounts for the jump from nearly fourteen to nearly eighteen months of inventory. (chart after the break) We’re following normal trend lines, but this is a bit extreme.
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I think that sales are down nearly 50% in Albemarle County and 25% in the City of Charlottesville … but median sales price is up $75k?