In short — Days on Market are up, year over year- Inventory in Charlottesville/Albemarle is slightly up, year over year. This may be a signal that we’re moving in the right direction.- Absorption Rate (the time it takes for the existing inventory to be churned) is up – anything over 5-6 months is considered to be a Buyer’s Market. 14 months of inventory in Charlottesville/Albemarle certainly fits that definition.- Buyer clients of mine made an offer on a very well-priced house in the City last week – and were one of four offers.- Properties are still selling, average sale price is still up.Buyers are buying and sellers are selling – the price and the property have to be right. Market data for the Charlottesville Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) – Charlottesville/Albemarle/Fluvanna/Greene/Louisa/Nelson after the jump.* Data is pulled from the Charlottesville Area Association of Realtors’ MLS – data is the best that is available, and is (by my ballpark estimations) about 85% accurate – both for inventory collected and data entry by the Realtors.
Browsing Category Market statistics
Albemarle’s Third Quarter Building Permit report
As noted earlier this month, building permits are down in the Albemarle County region. Now, the Third Quarter Building Report has been released.The market needs to work its way through the excess inventory. Not adding to that pile is a good start.Two notable conclusions can be drawn:1) The plan to drive development into the growth areas seems to be working (27% of permits issued were in the White Hall district in Western Albemarle)2) Fewer building permits means that the market’s focus may turn to existing housing inventory – which is a very good thing. Thanks to Brian Wheeler for putting this report together.
No better science than you’ll find in Vegas
The odds there are probably as good or better than one’s chances to “time” the bottom of the real estate market.When will we reach “bottom”?… (We’ll know in 18 months)Bank of America is exiting the wholesale mortgage business.Nourel Roubini is among the greatest advocates for the “sky is falling” perspective (backed by fundamentals)The bubble blog describes the “crash”But … when it all shakes out, one thing will remain the same – Real Estate Is LOCAL.When an agency like NAR or HUD issues a press release about real estate, it does so with a spreadsheet and a bevy of easy-to-regurgitate statistics…. It will be a home that exists in one state, in one town, in one neighborhood, on one street and that has its own character and economics.And that’s why, in many if not most cases, reading your local real estate blogs will frequently bring better, more applicable analysis.*Days on Market clearly is inaccurate, and I don’t know why.
Lower housing starts is a great thing
Builders are suffering, but the wider housing economy will benefit by this reduction in adding inventory.The market needs to work its way through the excess inventory…. In the Charlottesville region, there are nearly nine months of inventory -I’m looking forward to Albemarle’s 3rd Quarter building permit report. In the meantime – this is a good discussion at cvillenews last month debating such growth issues.Pay less attention to the breathless analysts and read cogent, clear analysis from people like Noah and Pat.CR says:Even with the declines in permits and starts, this report shows builders are still starting too many projects. Starts will probably continue to decline in coming months.Finally, you’ve gotta love the Economist.
3rd Quarter Market report for Charlottesville area real estate market
Prices are falling in many markets, which complicates the delinquency equation as many mortgages continue to reset at higher rates and higher monthly payments.The new Charlottesville report seems to have less spin than many of the previous ones, which is beneficial to everybody – buyers and seller, the public, the media and the Realtors (and their credibility).One aspect of the report that needs clarification is this – when looking at non-locality-specific numbers, the numbers they use are for the entire MLS, not just our market area, which I have noted several times before skews the numbers.In the City of Charlottesville, Albemarle, Fluvanna, Greene, Louisa and Nelson Counties, as of 14 October, 2007:There are 2,492 properties actively on the market right now.2,444 properties have sold since the first of the year…. There are 367 homes under $200k on the market (and I don’t have the ability to do the average DOM for that many properties) and there are 170 homes over one million dollars on the market.A few choice quotes from the report, decidedly un-spun:In the early part of the decade, we saw extremely low inventory levels of around 4 or 5 months of supply…. Prices will continue to rise slowly and inventory will continue to be the big story in the market.Take note: the lenders do not consider the Charlottesville area a “declining market,” which is declared after a market has witnessed several consecutive quarterly declines. From an email from one of the lenders with whom I work : Northern Virginia is getting hammered; these counties are listed as being “declining markets” – Fairfax, Arlington, Clarke, Spotsylvania, Stafford, Warren, Fauquier, Prince William, Loudoun, Including the following cities: Alexandria, Fairfax, Falls Church, Fredericksburg, Manassas, Manassas Park – sharing the page with Florida and California.
September real estate market data for the Charlottesville region
When comparing 2004 and 2007, sales in Charlottesville/Albemarle are down about 30%.Between 2004 and 2007, sales are down, days on market are up, and the absorption rate is apparently nearly 3.5 times higher than it was in 2004 (this seems to be such a jump that it may be a data error)…. 2004 Sold – Charlottesville & Albemarle – Single Family homes, attached homes and condos2007 Sold – Charlottesville & Albemarle – Single Family homes, attached homes and condosInventory levels seem to be following a similar trend line as to that of years past, although greatly exaggerated…. 2004 Sold – Charlottesville & Albemarle – Single Family homes and attached homes (no condos)2007 Sold – Charlottesville & Albemarle – Single Family homes and attached homes (no condos)…. Sellers are motivated, and it really and truly is a great time to buy a house – so long as you do the appropriate due diligence, detach your emotions and negotiate well.Daniel has the 2006 versus 2007 statistics.Below the fold are the numbers for the Central Virginia region.
Quick market update for the Charlottesville region
Still working on the market statistics for the Central Virginia region. In the meantime, these are some quick numbers based on the recent availability of the “Continuous Days on Market” statistic provided by the Charlottesville area MLS:There are currently 2494 properties currently on the market in the Charlottesville MSA*1176 have been on the market for at least 120 days – nearly 50% of the properties currently for sale have been on the market for at least four months!716 have been on the market for 716 days.448 have been on the market for at least 448 days.195 have been on for at least one year. 29 of these properties’ asking prices are more than one million dollars.CDOM is a count of the total time an address or parcel ID has been on the market, as compared to DOM (Days on Market) which is a measure of how long a specific MLS number has been on the market.By looking at the “CDOM” we are able to see the true time a property has been on the market, mitigating the impact of trying to “game the MLS” by withdrawing a property and re-listing it to make it appear “fresh.”The impact of Days on market on a property’s market value has long been debated. Basically, the longer a property is on the market, the more motivated the seller is (usually) going to be.I plan to post full market data later today.*Charlottesville, Albemarle, Fluvanna, Greene, Nelson, and I am including Louisa for this story.