A Big Shift in Albemarle County’s Board of Supervisors

in Albemarle Charlottesville Growth Politics Transportation on

Virginia Board of Elections - Election Night Results - November 5th, 2013 - Snow-Palmer.jpg

A lot of money was raised and spent in these elections.

The Albemarle County elections last night brought about a resounding change on the Albemarle County Supervisors. Gone are Rodney Thomas and Duane Snow; in are Brad Sheffield and Liz Palmer. For what it’s worth, the Democrats won and the Republicans lost.

Looking at the races through the lens of VPAP data, I saw this in a Facebook conversation:

So which Supervisors are beholden to real estate development groups? Here are some of the top donations by industry… Notice a pattern?

Duane Snow, $17,800 Real Estate/Construction
Liz Palmer, $26,043 Miscellaneous
Rodney Thomas, $12,300 Real Estate/Construction
Brad Sheffield, $17,386 Miscellaneous

It’s hard to argue with money. Seemingly more than the ballot box, money matters.

Local elections matter. The localities vote on growth management strategies, property tax rates, the ways in which the emergency services operate and cooperate (or not) and notably transportation and infrastructure improvements. And yesterday, about 13,000 people in Albemarle County helped decide the near (and long) term future of Albemarle County.

J. Reynolds Hutchins at the DP says:

Palmer, Sheffield and McKeel ran campaigns hinged on the county’s growing transportation problems and angst over the Western Bypass of U.S. 29.

Whether the Western Bypass gets built will be an interesting (continued) debate. Will they build it? Will they shut it down? Will they study it more? Will they extend it so it’s a more logical and functional road?

The County needs infrastructure improvements … let’s see how the new Board chooses to take up that task.

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Walking a Mile (in My Shoes) as a Real Estate Agent

in About Jim General Real Estate on

Overgrown railroad siding. Red Hill VA, September 2010


Being a real estate agent is one of the greatest privileges in the world. It requires a diverse skill-set of sales, compassion, empathy, marketing, organization, hustle, wit and patience. It’s connected me with people in ways unlike anything I’ve ever experienced before and is incomparable to any job I’ve ever had (and I’ve had a lot). It takes no guts to start but it takes all of them to continue.

I briefly started to emulate Greg’s thoughts and style and quickly determined that wouldn’t be fair to either of us. So I went with a bit of a stream of consciousness. But pulled out two of his points that resonated most with me.

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How Do you Feel about Paying for Each Mile you Drive?

in General Real Estate Politics Transportation on

Source: http://www.reddit.com/r/pics/comments/1p97m6/the_hovenring_is_a_suspended_bicycle_path/

Would you prefer to raise the gas tax or pay for each mile you drive? America’s infrastructure is crumbling. Literally. How might we pay for it?

Proposals for taxing vehicles’ miles traveled have been around for a long time.

A quick search on Richmond Sunlight shows that this bill “Motor fuel tax; joint subcommittee to study replacement with mileage-based fee. (HJ626)” failed to make it out of committee in 2009.

Virginia’s Department of Transportation released a study in December 2008 that addressed many of the options available for a VMT tax:

One alternative widely proposed to the fuel tax is a “Vehicle Miles Traveled” (VMT) tax. Under this system, drivers pay a fee based on miles traveled rather than a tax on the amount of fuel used. The VMT tax concept can serve broader policy aims as well, by enabling policy makers to set variable fees in different network areas to reduce congestion during peak travel times, a critical and worsening issue in some metropolitan areas.

Some specific possible implications for real estate:

– Real estate agents might be less inclined to do full-day tours for incoming buyers
– I’d be tempted to encourage more drive-bys of homes and drive-throughs of areas than I do already
– We might see further hyper-local focus on areas and neighborhoods. When I was a new real estate agent in 2001, I used to go all over. As my career developed and gas prices went up, my geographical range for representation has shrunk. I tend to not go to Trevillians or Faber or Pratts very often anymore.
– Increase in bicycle use? Right now in most European countries, bikes are outselling cars. This, I’d say, is a good thing.
– Human settlement patterns may see even more trending towards denser urbanization.
– Higher demand for public transportation.

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Walking a Mile

in General Real Estate on

If you’re curious about what it’s like to be a Realtor, spend a few minutes reading Greg’s post, Walk a Mile.

From yard signs (people who almost always say “that’s a lot of money”), from Zillow inquires and from escrow officers. From agents asking for feedback from a showing, from idx inquiries on other agents listings and from buyers who have to see a few houses “right now”. From loan officers telling you the appraisal didn’t come in at the right amount, from a buyer saying “thank you” or from another agent telling you that their seller went with “the other offer” instead. Answer in the middle of dinner with your family, at 11pm, on vacation.

I’m inspired to write my story. Publishing Monday.

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Questioning the Data – 3rd Quarter Nest Realty Market Report

in Albemarle Charlottesville Market statistics on

2013 Q3 Cville Nest Report - 5 Year Sales Trend

The third quarter of 2013 ended with a neither a bang nor a whimper, but a nice, consistent breathing pattern. As it stands right now, recovery seems to be in full swing.

I’ve said for years to question the data – whatever its source (it’s why I tend to provide raw data for readers to vet). If you’d read the market report from CAAR last week, you’d have been reading inaccurate conclusions different conclusions than the ones in our report. I won’t go point-by-point through the discrepancies (but will in my monthly note), but will say simply: the conclusions are wrong. We look at data differently using the same sources. As I’ve said for years – question everything (even the stuff I write – and ask me your questions).

Download the full 3rd Quarter 2013 Nest Report

If you watch national news you’d see:

– September existing home sales fall 1.9% (USA Today)
– USA Today is much the same as the NAR’s blog post
– Existing Home Sales in September: 5.29 million SAAR, Inventory up 1.8% Year-over-year (Calculated Risk)
– and then we have Zero Hedge: Existing Home Sales Plunge At Fastest Pace In 15 Month As Affordability Drops To 5 Year Low

Those trends are evident in the Charlottesville area as well. As prices rise, sales volume drops.

Some quick year over year numbers for the Charlottesville area:

MSA – sales volume up 19%
Albemarle – volume up 16%
Charlottesville City – volume up 16%

Single family home prices, long the bellwether for the housing market:

MSA – up 10%
Albemarle – up 16.2%
Charlottesville – up 12.5%

Your micro market will vary.

Update: so I upset a few folks with my calling the CAAR report “wrong” and “inaccurate”. I apologize for my tone, but remain 100% confident that the numbers I and we present are accurate. We do use different methodologies when looking at the data.

I’m not trying to pick a fight and could have been more diplomatic in my original post’s tone. For that, I apologize. I cannot apologize for presenting accurate data to my readers and clients.

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