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UVA’s Firing Range near Glenmore – Balancing Growth with Long-Term Firing Range

in Albemarle Growth on

UVA has had a firing range for a long, long time. Residents of the Glenmore neighborhood don’t like listening to it, so they’ve asked UVA for either a quieter range or for it to be moved. UVA, being state-owned, “is not required to seek permission from the county for construction on land it owns.”

Enter stalemate.

And yet –

A question came to me that I’ve been wondering for months –

Has this matter hurt Glenmore house prices yet?

I must say I wouldn’t dream of moving there after learning about this problem.

And this, readers, is why it is absolutely critical for buyers to do their own research on homes and neighborhoods and surroundings; real estate agents (I am one, but I do my absolute best to educate my clients about such matters) are not obligated to discuss/disclose matters outside the four corners of the subject property.

UVa’s in a tough spot – they’ve been there for many decades, while Glenmore has existed since the early ’90s, yet it seems that the recent “improvements” amplified the sound.

Compromise: why don’t UVa and Glenmore split the cost to implement the necessary solution?

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(Some) Real Estate Prices up in Charlottesville and Albemarle

in Albemarle Charlottesville Market statistics on
Are we in a bottom?

Looking at some real estate data the other day, I came to a conclusion: for some segments of the Charlottesville real estate market, we might actually be in the “bottom” – bottom meaning that prices are either not declining anymore or are in fact, wait for it … rising.

This belief was bolstered further when I looked at some of the numbers –

May, June, July – for the Charlottesville MSA, Year over Year:

– 777 homes (condo, single family, town home) sold this year versus 709 last year – an increase in volume of nearly 9%
– Median Price was up about 5% to $261,645

For the County of Albemarle:

– 418 homes sold versus 375 in this period last year; an increase of about 10%
– Median price was up nearly 12%

For the City of Charlottesville:

– 230 homes sold this year versus 146 last May, June, July; an increase of ~15%
– Median price in the City of Charlottesville rose nearly 8%.

BUT

There are still a lot of people in this market who cannot sell and not lose money – and I think this is going to remain the case for several years. Yes, the above news and data are very positive, and if you’re looking to buy and know you’re going to be here for several years, now could be a tremendous time to buy – you might lament your delay. But … every real estate market is local – down to the individual – and specific.

Moving Median Price for Charlottesville MLS - 2011 - 2012

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The First Seven Months of 2012 – Charlottesville Real Estate Market Update

in Albemarle Charlottesville Market statistics on

The Questions:

– Can I sell my house in Charlottesville (area) right now?

– Should I buy a house in Charlottesville (area) right now?

Answer to both: It depends.

Buyers: If you need to live somewhere and know you’re going to be somewhere for at least 5-7 years, now might be a great time to buy … ** interest rates remain extremely low. But … there is a dearth of quality inventory on the market right now. I’m finding that buyers are searching for (much) longer timeframes, so that when the right house does come on the market, they are prepared. Start early; do your research and be prepared to move quickly when the right house comes on the market.

Sellers: If you need/want to sell, understand that buyers are still looking for quality and value … and that selling a home is work. (It’s hard work; I task my seller clients with loads of prep work) , but know this: unless your home is one that is priced and conditioned to sell in two weeks, be prepared to be patient. And to defend your price with data and facts, not emotions and expectations — neither buyers nor appraisers care about what you need/want to make or how much the house is worth to you.

Year over year:

(Inventory level = # of homes on the market)

Charlottesville – Inventory level is down nearly 20%, median price is up slightly to $255k – up about 7% (but still way below 2010)

Albemarle – Inventory level is down a bit, median price is up about 5%

Fluvanna – Inventory is down about 8%, as is the median price.

Greene – Inventory is down a little and the median price is up significantly – about 30% … keep in mind that this increase was based on 11 closed sales this July versus 19 the previous July.

Louisa – Inventory down about 23% while the median price down nearly 20%

Nelson – Always an inconsistent market due to the variety of product mix there … Inventory is down about 12% while median price is down 24%.

The takeaways from this month’s look at “what’s happening in the Charlottesville real estate market”:

1 – In some segments of the Charlottesville – Albemarle MSA (Metropolitan Statistical Area), the buyers’ market looks like it’s over. Good houses that are priced well are moving … sometimes in a matter of days and occasionally with multiple offers. Inventory is down, some prices are up. (Low Inventory isn’t necessarily a sign of recovery though)

2 – Foreclosures and short sales are still out there, and are seemingly comprising a smaller portion of the market than we’ve seen over the past few years. But there are anecdotes everywhere – I almost showed a short sale in Albemarle in which the asking price is $450k … down from the initial asking price was $1.19 million … in 2008.

3 – I don’t feel like a complete fool saying that the recovery is near. I don’t know when “near” is, but I do know that “normal” is a moving and shifting target. “New normal” is an absurd term; today is normal. So is tomorrow. So is yesterday.

4 – Product mix shift – anecdotally, we’ve seen this coming, but we’re seeing more and more buyers are opting for single family detached homes as opposed to attached homes. Condo volume seems to be stabilizing … the condo buyer of today is more interested in the condo lifestyle (location, no maintenance or yard work) than we saw in the previous market*. What we’re also seeing is a demand for the condo lifestyle in single family homes; that solution doesn’t really exist yet, but there’s a market for it!

5 – Real estate market Data is but part of the conversation and analysis – experience and conversations with other experienced real estate agents matters tremendously. It might sound silly to in-lookers, but being able to tell that a property is great and will sell soon is crucial. Example: I showed a house on Saturday and told my buyer clients that I expected it to sell in the “next couple days” … then I heard Monday that the sellers got three offers. That insight comes from experience, not just looking at data. … and educating my buyers so that they are able to discern a well-priced, well-marketed home is one of my favorite things.

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Primer for 1st Half 2012 Real Estate Market Update

in Market statistics on
30-year fixed-rate mortgage - Wolfram|Alpha

I’m going to be running numbers next week – give some time for realtors to enter the closings in the Charlottesville MLS and for the delayed (there are so many*) closings to finally close.

This is just a primer for what is likely to be a long and comprehensive post next week.

Contracts written 5/1/11 – 6/28/11:

Single Family Homes in Charlottesville and Albemarle : 213

Attached homes in Charlottesville and Albemarle: 70

Condos in Charlottesville and Albemarle: 51

Contracts written 5/1/12 – 6/28/12:

Single Family Homes in Charlottesville and Albemarle : 255 (up 16%)

Attached homes in Charlottesville and Albemarle: 70

Condos in Charlottesville and Albemarle: 32 (down 37%)

Looking at the above data, a quick conclusion could be reached that more buyers are shifting towards purchasing single family homes as home prices have dropped. Next week, I’ll separate the City from the County, product mixes, and the rest of the Charlottesville MSA.

These numbers are likely representative, but not an entirely accurate picture of the Charlottesville real estate market because most closings tend to happen at the end of the month … come back next week.

Closed sales 5/1/11 – 6/28/11:

Single Family Homes in Charlottesville and Albemarle : 230

Attached homes in Charlottesville and Albemarle: 74

Condos in Charlottesville and Albemarle: 41

Closed sales 5/1/12 – 6/28/12:

Single Family Homes in Charlottesville and Albemarle : 229

Attached homes in Charlottesville and Albemarle: 60

Condos in Charlottesville and Albemarle: 36


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May 2012 Charlottesville Real Estate Market Report

in Albemarle Charlottesville Market statistics on

Dig in. There’s some good news here.

Download the Nest Report for May 2012 here  or read it below.

Of the 189 homes that sold in the Charlottesville MSA since 1 April 2012 with CDOM of less than 30 days:

– the % of list to sell price was about 95%

Of the 213 homes that sold in the same timeframe with CDOM of at least 120 days:

– the % of list to sell price was about 94%.

That looks like price doesn’t matter … until one keeps in mind that in the previous wildly broad and potentially inaccurate perspective, the list to sell ratio data can be so easily skewed.

If you’re looking at the Charlottesville – Albemarle real estate market, focus on your market – your segment of the market. That $1.95 million dollar house above? It’s as relevant to the $245k attached home as the fishing report on Saturn is to whether I’ll catch a fish this weekend.

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April 2012 Charlottesville Real Estate Market Report

in Albemarle Charlottesville Fluvanna Greene Louisa Market statistics Nelson on

Highlights:

– Days on Market (an inherently flawed data point) are down in Charlottesville, Albemarle and Fluvanna.

– Average Sales prices are down (not surprising)

– Total sales across the MSA are down (not surprising)

Thoughts/initial conclusions:

– More buyers are looking to be closer in/closer to stuff

– Good properties are selling and selling quickly

– Interest rates remain low – a good thing for buyers.

– I think we may have pulled the spring market forward a bit; the early spring may have pulled transactions into the earlier months of the year.

Dead simple Takeaways:

– Buyers: do your due diligence, don’t let emotion enter the equation and make sound, rationale decisions with the intent of holding the property for at least five to seven years

– Sellers: do your due diligence and realize that buyers most often don’t have to buy, but want to buy – it’s your job to make them want to buy your house. This means: price, presentation, perfection … and a great location and setting.

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Rebutting the Realtor Rip-off Argument

in General Real Estate on

“The great realtor rip-off” – what a great attention-grabbing headline from The Economist.

But … the author seems to have had a bad experience with a real estate agent that must have precipitated his rant. (try as I might, I cannot find the author’s name on the post, otherwise, I’d ask)

I almost stopped reading when I read that one of his sources for proof was Glengarry Glen Ross. But where’s the fun in not reading a rant?

I’ll be the first to tell you that there are too many unqualified real estate agents practicing real estate. I’ll also be the first to argue that those professional agents who truly represent their clients’ best interests are often underpaid.

Stepping through some of the author’s arguments:

“Agents routinely tell buyers not to worry about the fat commission because “the seller pays it.””

No. A lot of agents might, but I have no idea; my role is to represent my clients, not know what other agents say to their customers and clients. But … I think assuming the consumer is stupid is the wrong approach. Buyers (and sellers) know that nothing is free.

Read: Who Pays the Buyer Broker Fee? or A Call for an End to Cooperative Compensation. or The Wall Street Journal Gets it Right on commissions.

“In most areas a few big brokers handle most transactions.” Partly true.

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