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I’ll Know Housing Recovery in Charlottesville When I’ve Seen It

in Albemarle Charlottesville Market statistics on

The housing recovery in Charlottesville (and presumably everywhere, but knowing this market is hard enough) is kind of like pornography.

I shall not today attempt further to define the kinds of material I understand to be embraced within that shorthand description [“hard-core pornography”]; and perhaps I could never succeed in intelligibly doing so. But I know it when I see it, and the motion picture involved in this case is not that. [Emphasis added.]

—Justice Potter Stewart, concurring opinion in Jacobellis v. Ohio 378 U.S. 184 (1964), regarding possible obscenity in The Lovers.

How will the “recovery” be defined? Is now the time to buy? (or sell?)

First, we’ll know by hindsight. When we have the luxury and the benefit of 12 to 24 months of looking back, we’ll be able to tell.

Transactions – volume of transactions – what is normal volume of sales transactions in the Charlottesville MSA? I don’t know; homeownership rates are declining. Last year, 1755 single family homes sold in the Charlottesville MSA (including Louisa). In 2002, 2479 single family homes sold. I’d put the “sustainable” rate of single family home sales somewhere in between those two numbers.

Price – stability or appreciation showing themselves

Foreclosures and short sales – fewer than today to none.

Shadow inventory – known and dispensed with; no longer a question of uncertainty.

So … is the housing market in Charlottesville recovering?

Calculated Risk says:

The debate is now about the strength of the recovery, not whether there is a recovery. My view is housing will remain sluggish for some time, and I expect 2012 to be another historically weak year, but better than 2011.

Maybe.

Consider this snapshot, from which I’m trying to :

In Charlottesville and Albemarle:

– 107 homes went under contract between 15 April and 1 May 2011. 64 of those were single family. 23 were attached.

– 144 homes went under contract between 15 April and 1 May 2012 – a 26% increase! – 92 (30% more) were single family. 23 were attached.

In the Charlottesville MSA (Charlottesville, Albemarle, Fluvanna, Greene, Louisa, Nelson):

– 156 homes went under contract between 15 April and 1 May 2011. 109 (70%) were single family.

– 186 homes went under contract between 15 April and 1 May 2012. 132 (71%) of those were single family.

That sure looks like we’re on the path to recovery, right?

In the MSA in the above timeframe, 22 of those contracts in 2011 were either short sales or foreclosures (6 & 16, respectively). In 2012, 19 of those were short sales or foreclosures (8 & 11, respectively). “A 14% decline in distressed contracts!” surely is a better headline than “3“, right?

It’s too early to tell with respect to foreclosures/short sales/distressed sales

Charlottesville Foreclosure Rate and Foreclosure Activity Information | RealtyTrac

My personal favorite:

“When will U.S. house prices recover? Likely never. But that’s no reason not to buy.” and believe it or not, the article reaches some salient conclusions, echoed by many if not most of my recent buyer clients’ decisions –

That’s why prospective buyers should stop focusing on the vague hope that house prices will jump from here and focus instead on the functional value houses provide for the money. In most markets, they provide enough of that to make buying a good deal.

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Charlottesville Real Estate Market February Update

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Contracts are up in the Charlottesville area – significantly. Prices are down, inventory is down, sales are up. There is some positivity in the market; multiple offers, while not “the norm” are definitely common.

As I’ve said to clients: properties that are priced well*, in great condition, and in great locations tend to be selling well.

Nest Report – Feb 2012

I’m still trying to make time to run a few different numbers – breakdown of property type, etc. I’m doing these for my clients on property-specific instances frequently) but haven’t been able to do it for here …

* Priced well is part science, part art, part data analytics and part luck, sometimes not in equal proportions.

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Interesting New Market Report – Some Positivity in the (Macro & Micro) Market

in Market statistics on

One of the best parts of this Housing Prospects 50 States Release March 12 2012

One of the things I said in the Newsplex story is that any market analysis that is broader than a street or neighborhood is too broad to make an informed and educated decision.

Excerpting from the report won’t do it justice; if you’re interested, download the pdf and read it.

The one quibble I would make is that depending on Zillow for local analysis with respect to the Charlottesville MSA is perhaps not the best idea; but from a macro perspective, they’re worthwhile.

Perhaps the best part of the report is this – William Lucy states the need for local analysis and local perspectives. The housing system may be broken, but the solution is not a one-size-fits-all

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Charlottesville People – Do you Care What the National Association of Realtors Say?

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I know I’m a broken record. I get a tremendous amount of value from the National Association of Realtors – from their publications (On Common Ground is tremendous), to the lobbying they do to the information they share … but as far as home sales data and projections, I don’t understand why there is so much gnashing of teeth and complaining about the NAR’s projections and data. The NAR is a trade organization for Realtors. I’m not bashing the NAR, but I would like to see their analysis put in the appropriate context.

Understanding the Charlottesville area real estate market is a full-time job – representing buyers and sellers, analyzing the market, etc.; making sense of the nation’s housing market – I’d go so far as to say it’s impossible to do accurately or credibly.

For a brief summary of where we are in Charlottesville:

Nest’s January 2012 Real Estate Summary

Nest’s 2012 Annual Report

And the “Market Statistics” category in RealCentralVA. Or, better yet, if you have a question about the market, start your research looking at the broader market statistics and then, ask me.

To see the responses to the title question from those on Twitter, read the rest of the story.

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There is No “New Normal” in the Real Estate Market

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“Normal” is “now”.

Homeownership Rates - via Calculated Risk

– Human settlement patterns (where people are living and working)

– Gas prices

– Expectation of permanence/transience

– Interest rates

– Property tax rates

– Monetary supply

– The internet’s availability and impact

Those are just a few of the ways that 1999 differs from 2011, and makes application of “normal” challenging.

Here’s something that hasn’t changed – people need homes. Buying a house is a choice, and one that comes with greater responsibility than renting – you’re accepting on the maintenance, the permanence, the mortgage, the community, the risk. If you’re not ready for those, don’t buy a house. If you’re ready to buy a home, do your due diligence and consider it.

“New normal” is a shifting term, applicable to virtually every evolving industry.

Heck, I’ve been seeking “new normal” for years.

But I thought I’d look at the data and briefly compare the 1999 Charlottesville area real estate market with the 2011 one … keeping in mind that so many things are different, thus negating in a lot of ways the comparisons.

1999 to 2011 - all home types

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What is Rio Road Going to Look Like in 5 Years?

in Albemarle Charlottesville Transportation on

It’s almost like the County and City leaders don’t care about the ramifications of their collective (in)decisions.

In five years:

– The City of Charlottesville still won’t have built their portion of the Meadowcreek Parkway

– The County of Albemarle will still be approving developments with no regard for their impact on traffic, schools, water, sewer, quality of life.

– The City and County will still be unable to work together as well as they should for the benefit of CharlAlbemarle citizens.

I have long struggled with my opinions about growth in Charlottesville/Albemarle. In the nearly five years since I wrote that post, nothing has changed.

Don’t get me wrong; I love living in Charlottesville (actually Crozet, but we all refer ourselves as being from “Charlottesville”), but how can we achieve balance?

Questions:

– What infrastructure improvements are being planned to accommodate all of these new units?
– The City of Charlottesville is encouraging more employment growth (good – see CFA and Worldstrides) but not working with the County to facilitate infrastructure improvements. Why?

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