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Shifting Demographics and the (Charlottesville) Housing Market

in General Real Estate on

The buyers who used to be for one to four years – are gone.

Charlottesville has always been a bit of a transient market, and this recession is creating some significant shifts in the demographics of buyers, shift I’m trying to figure out now rather than later.

– Younger people are choosing to rent rather than buy, as they have neither the desire nor job stability to to purchase. Put simply, many don’t know where they’ll be in two years and don’t want to be saddled with a house.

– I’d wager a large percentage of the population has been turned off of homeownership, for all the obvious reasons.

– “Active adult” communities in Charlottesville are few and far between, but The Lodge in Old Trail (in Crozet) looks like it may be poised for success.

– What will the landscape look like in thirty or forty years when these now new developments (I am reluctant to call some of these new incarnations “neighborhoods” just yet) start to experience their own turnover? Who will buy these houses?

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Seeking a Stable, Consistent Volume of Real Estate Transactions in Charlottesville

in Albemarle Charlottesville Market statistics on

I look at too much data. I admit it. In this post, I’m posing just a question – when looking at the past ten years of real estate data** in the Charlottesville, Virginia area, what is a “normal” level of real estate transactions and is there a correlation between transactions and population growth? And how can my buyer and seller clients (and readers) apply this knowledge?

My hypothesis is that once we achieve a stable, consistent volume of real estate transactions – equilibrium if you will – we’ll be able to definitively say that we reached “bottom” or “stagnation” and start to consider such things as “appreciation of real estate values.”

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Friday: What I’m Reading.

in Off-topic on

Coming on Monday – a comprehensive look at the first months’ real estate sales in the Charlottesville MSA, (following up on this weeks’ first look at the real estate market data) including median prices for attached and detached homes, Year over Year and 2011 versus 2000 transactional data. In short, even more Charlottesville real estate that you won’t find anywhere else.**

I’m trying to read more books.

I just finished The Great Stagnation: How America Ate All The Low-Hanging Fruit of Modern History,Got Sick, and Will (Eventually) Feel Better and now I’m reading The Filter Bubble: What the Internet Is Hiding from You, both of which are terrifying on different levels.*

Some linkage for you:

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Real Estate Round Up – Charlottesville Real Estate Market Update – May 2011

in Charlottesville Market statistics on

I’ve written a lot, looked at a lot, and analyzed a lot. Over the past two days, I have looked at real estate market data specific to the Charlottesville MSA for nearly six hours (and I still have quite a bit yet to come, including updated median sales price numbers).* I’ve written thousands of words, and thought that a summary post may be useful.

Part One: Charlottesville MSA – Single Family & Attached Homes Placed Under Contract – First Five Months

Part Two: Charlottesville Real Estate Market Update: Transaction Volume for 2000 – 2011

Part Three: What’s Selling in Charlottesville? Single Family, Attached homes or Condos?

Even this real estate analysis is too broad; to really know what’s happening, you (and I) need to study the market segment relevant to you. Every segment is different and unique.

Broadly:

– Single family homes in Charlottesville MSA: sales up 1.5%, median sales price down 4%

– Attached homes in Charlottesville MSA: sales down 16%, median sales price down 3%

– Condos in Charlottesville MSA: sales down 17%, median sales price down 3.5%

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Charlottesville MSA Homes Listed, Sold and Put Under Contract

Charlottesville Real Estate Market Update: Transaction Volume for 2000 – 2011

in Market statistics on

Part Two of … See Part One – Charlottesville MSA – Single Family & Attached Homes Placed Under Contract – First Five Months

Looking at the Charlottesville MSA for transactional volume history … what we need is stability and consistency. Once we can reach a relatively stable number of transactions, I think we’l be able to start to see normalcy, whatever that is … maybe ~ 1000 transactions per year?

For the first five months of the year, what we’re looking at here is everything – single family detached homes, attached homes, new construction, resale, condos …

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What's Selling in Charlottesville/Albemarle? Single Family homes, attached homes, condos?

What’s Selling in Charlottesville? Single Family, Attached homes or Condos?

in Market statistics on

Part Three of …

One of the most common questions I get is – what is selling in Charlottesville and Albemarle? Condos? Attached homes? Single Family? A look at the data gives a look at some answers …

NB:

– I’m keeping this focused on only the City of Charlottesville and the County of Albemarle as that is where the bulk of the attached homes and condos are located.

– Single family homes have come to be more affordable, leading to a decline in transactional volume within the condo and attached home segments of the market.

– 2005 was very good for condo conversions; now the condo conversions have been decimated in value.

– Attached homes can be very attractive – newer ones in good condition price right, especially so.

– Homeowners Associations’ fiscal health is likely to be more and more of an issue as this market correction continues to correct.

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