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Boys and Girls Club Cycling Challenge 2014

in Albemarle Charlottesville on

bgc_logo_trans_2014.png

First things first – you can donate to the Boys and Girls Club here. I’d personally appreciate any donation you can muster. I rode this ride last year for the first time (accomplished 75 miles, aiming for 100 this time) and the cause is a tremendous one.

1 – What is the Boys and Girls Club Ride?

Join hundreds of regional and pro cyclists on September 14, 2014 as they take off from Old Trail Village in Crozet, Virginia. During the Challenge, you’ll course through the foothills of the Blue Ridge Mountains. There are 25, 50, 75 and 100-mile routes, and an 8-mile family fun ride. Riders are treated to a finish line party including lunch, local wine and beer, and live music. Over the past eight years, the Cycling Challenge has grown into Virginia’s premier fall cycling event.

2 – Why ride? How did it start?

Various avid cyclist in tandem with the Boys and Girls Club developed the event about 7 years ago as a way to get kids on bikes, teach them both training and life skills, and to raise funds for the whole club. This is one of the biggest fundraisers for BGC of Central VA each year.

3 – Who benefits?

All 1,800 of kids of BGC of Central VA

5 – How many riders?

We’re targeting 450 registered riders for 2014

6 – How does this compare to other regional rides?

This is a very well supported with Rest Stations (police, support cars,food, drink, etc). Great after party (food, drink, live band, pool)

7 – How can people help?

Get registered to ride on the website. Donate funds to a registered riders. Volunteer to help support event day. Volunteers are needed for event day registration/packet pickup, setup, food, support cars and aid stations, cleanup.

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Using Google to Find your Triangles

in Albemarle Charlottesville General Real Estate on

Downtown Mall at the Center

What’s your triangle?* The above is from a map on which I was drawing the Downtown Mall, Belmont and what is “walking distance” to Downtown and UVA for some clients.

I’ve found that many, if not most, of my clients have specific triangles – geofences of sorts – that guide their buying areas.

The top squiggle in the box is 29 North. The circle in the center circle is the City of Charlottesville. The two points of the triangle to the West represent home and school. Typically, my clients’ lives (and my life too, when I’m playing dad/husband and not Realtor) lead them to at least three points on a daily basis, and determining these points is often challenging at best to do from afar, or quickly.

– Which school will my kids attend?
– Will there be redistricting?
– At which grocery store will I shop?
– Wegmans? Whole Foods? Kroger?
– Which coffee shop?
– Which library?

Much of what I do is knowing how and when to guide and my clients to see the value of these data points, as well as help them know what’s around the corner. (Did you know there’s going to be a subdivision there?)

Enter Google:

Today, Google is tracking wherever your smartphone goes, and putting a neat red dot on a map to mark the occasion. You can find that map here. All you need to do is log in with the same account you use on your phone, and the record of everywhere you’ve been for the last day to month will erupt across your screen like chicken pox.

(I have location history turned off on my phone, otherwise I’d have used one of my own screenshots)

So … if you’re moving to Charlottesville, take my advice to rent before you buy – turn on google’s location history and use them to better understand your triangles. And once we’ve figured out the triangles and have a foundational understanding of the Charlottesville real estate market, we devise a path forward.

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August’s Monthly Note – The Market, Neighborhood Context and a Question about Archives

in Monthly Notes on

This month’s note, while a bit late, will be published late this week. I’m hoping to dive into some meatier topics so the editing process is going to be interesting.

I still find the monthly-note-writing experience interesting and find myself referring more and more often to the stories I write there; the triangles segment from last month is one I might end up publishing here on the blog.

One of the questions I’ll be posing this month is whether I should publish the subscription-only notes here once a year. Thoughts welcomed.

If you are interested in reading only one email every month that incorporates market analysis, sometimes tangentially related real estate stories, and a summary of the better blog posts every month on RealCentralVA and RealCrozetVA, two clicks and it’s yours. (subscribe today and I’ll send you July’s note as a primer)

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Charlottesville is Happy

in Albemarle Charlottesville on

Good Housekeeping says Charlottesville is happy.

Charlottesville, Virginia, is the happiest city in America, according to the study. The University of Virginia college town narrowly beat Rochester, Minnesota, Lafayette, Louisiana, and Naples, Florida.

I’m assuming they’re including Albemarle County in their metrics.

Update 28 July 2014 – This link has been making its rounds on social media – The Guardian has picked up on Charlottesville’s happiness.

Succinctly put:

“It’s small, and it’s surrounded by beautiful country, but it has all the things you’d want from a big city,” says Donnie Glass, chef at a leading restaurant, Public Fish & Oyster.

(I have yet to make it to this new restaurant. Darn it. But I’ve heard it’s quite good.)

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Mid-Year 2014 Charlottesville Area Market Update

in Albemarle Charlottesville General Real Estate Market statistics on

This is from my monthly note … I don’t often post here what I write there, but am making an exception.

Single family, attached and condos - first half 2014 - Charlottesville MSA

We’re at the halfway point. I think the market can be summed up thusly: Buyers are buying, sellers are selling, but there is, and has been, an underlying mistrust of the market by both buyers and sellers. A lot of buyers were burned or saw their friends or parents burned in the previous market and are reluctant to take the plunge to buy. A lot of sellers remain underwater – even those who bought five to ten years ago – and are either reluctant or unable to sell. About a third of sellers nationwide are still in negative equity positions. (I don’t have access to local data). Short advice: If you need to sell and can, do. If you want to buy and have the life circumstances to do so, consider buying.

On to the data, solely for Charlottesville City and Albemarle County, respectively:*

Sold in 1st Half 2013: 246 + 695 = 941

Sold in 1st Half of 2014: 259 + 683 = 942

Flat market, right?

Looking broadly at the data, one can reasonably and simply conclude that when prices go up, sales go down and when prices go down, sales go up. In the City of Charlottesville for single family homes, 19 more homes have sold so far this year than last year’s first half, but June’s median price is down about $5K. The County’s market is equally odd; 26 fewer homes have sold in the first six months than last, but June’s median price is up by about $28K. Huh?

Micro markets matter.

Broad trends – even at the locality level – can be misleading. I’ve been advising clients (and writing and writing) that national data, while good for headlines, matters little when making buying or selling decisions in the Charlottesville area. If you’re looking to make a decision, analyze your micro market.

For example, the $475K – $600K single family detached market in the Brownsville and Crozet Elementary districts: There are 64 such homes under contract in Albemarle County; 38 (59%) are new construction. In Crozet, there are 22 homes in that price range under contract; 18 (82%!) are new construction. If you’re trying to sell a home in Crozet in that price point, your primary competition is new construction and you need to prepare and price with this in mind. In contrast, in Baker Butler and Hollymead Elementary school districts (29 North region), there are 46 single family homes under contract and four in the $475K – $600K range and all are resales. Micro markets are far more relevant than county-state-national market data (or zestimates).

Broadly, we might be witnessing a balancing of the market. I’ll let you know next year what today’s market is doing.

(All of my PDFs are here, if you’re curious and/or you want to fact-check me. Please do; I’d appreciate constructive criticism.)

The inventory question:

In the Charlottesville MSA (Charlottesville, Albemarle, Fluvanna, Greene, Louisa, Nelson), 2,759 homes have been listed so far this year versus 2,876 last year, which is a small enough difference – about 5% – that I’m going to call the new listing numbers mostly flat.

Differential - Single family, attached and condos - first half 2014 - Charlottesville MSA

Have questions about the market? Curious what your home might be worth? Thinking about buying? Call or email me anytime – 434-242-7140.


Update 12 July 2014: We at Nest Realty have released our First Half 2014 market report. Download it here; it’s a brand new format  – I/we hope you like it!

Update 14 July 2014: I wrote a brief market report specifically for Crozet, Virginia; it’s a highlight that micro markets matter.

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Monday Reading – 16 June 2014

in Albemarle Charlottesville General Real Estate on

– This should be required reading – 8 Surprise expenses for homeowners. Changing locks, pest control … in something as rare as a purple dinosaur eating a banana in the middle of a soccer stadium talking on a cell phone, many of the comments are useful.

– City of Charlottesville City Council will discuss Belmont Bridge and the Albemarle Planning Commission will discuss downtown Crozet’s possible renovation, among other big meetings.

– This part of the conceptual plan for West Main Street is absurd:

Another change that the street could see is the addition of elevated and protected bicycle lanes on both sides of the road. Providing bike lanes that are protected from on-street parking could help to reduce the number of bicycle accidents that have occurred along the road.

“The bike lanes will probably mostly be used by people who are tootling along, a little slower, maybe have children on bikes, and it’s a safer environment,” said committee member Rachel Lloyd. “People who are really moving can go in the vehicular lanes.”

Instead of elevated bike lanes, why not protected ones?

– There is so much to the pocket listing conversation; it’s fascinating that Colorado’s Real Estate Commission may be entering the fray. I wrote about pocket listings last year and earlier this year in my note.

– Creepy. What data brokers know about you. One day soon, this will (openly) affect lending.

– This is a really interesting conversation on “what businesses should come to Crozet?” I missed the opportunity to better define the question – what anchor industries should come to Crozet? but the discussion was great all the same. Lots and lots of Facebook comments, too.

– With clients yesterday, we debated whether the folks who designed Stonefield were drunk or high. We concluded they were probably both.

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