Today, in Albemarle, Charlottesville, Fluvanna, Greene, Louisa, Nelson (and Augusta/Waynesboro, as hey are becoming such a part of our market)***As of 1 January, there were currently 2206 properties on the market in the Charlottesville market area, and 400 were under contract. A quick look back at the past three years shows that our market has changed dramatically. On 3 January, there are 2443 active on the market, and 467 under contract.*I’m choosing to start the year off with this thought in mind:But let’s be frank: After such a run of down and bad numbers through most of 2006 and 2007, will it really be a big surprise if housing demand and sales and new construction finally begin showing signs of recovery — even modest recovery — in the year ahead?Looking back (and stating the obvious), the National Association of Realtors did not have the best track record,while the Mortgage Bankers Association was a little bit closer:Independent of the fact that I make my living representing clients buying and selling real estate in the Charlottesville area, I have been told by several clients that they perceive right now to be an excellent time to buy. *Charlottesville market area has been: Albemarle, Charlottesville, Fluvanna, Greene, Louisa, Nelson** The tables do not include Waynesboro/Augusta, as they did not begin to participate in our MLS substantially until 2007.*** Going forward in 2008, I am going to try to include Waynesboro/Augusta as well.
you searched for msa
Central Virginia regional real estate market update
With that preface, welcome to the market report for the Charlottesville area for November 2007.This month I am including data from 2004, 2005, 2006 and 2007.Conclusions — Read beyond the headlines.- There is no “national” or perhaps even “regional” real estate market…. For example – the neighborhood that is stable, in a great location and is desirable is going to be in better shape than the neighborhood that shares a border with a new construction development that has seen its asking prices slashed by twenty or thirty percent.- Things are selling, and now is regarded by many to be an excellent time to buy – so long as you are looking to buy for an appropriate timeframe…. People still need places to live.- Due diligence and statistical analysis on every real estate purchase and sale should be performed prior to every transaction.- The data, while skewed by inaccuracies here and there, offers the best trending information available.Highlights — For the entire Charlottesville MSA, the absorption rate for our inventory is currently more than four times that of November 2004 and five months more than November of 2006.- Days on market for the entire area is slightly higher than this time last year.- Average sales price is higher than the average sales price in 2005, but lower than 2006.- Median Sales price numbers are interesting and all over the board.Caveats — It is very difficult to pull new construction data out of the MLS statistics, and even then, the data is often grossly inaccurate for myriad reasons, so I go with what is there.- The data is only as good as the people doing the input.- Buyer and Seller psychology are very difficult, if not impossible, to quantify.The data speaks for itself. (Click images for larger versions)Inventory levels for Charlottesville/Albemarle 2004-2007The year end report should be equally fascinating, and I will revisit my predictions from earlier this year and make new ones for next year.How low will the Realtor membership decline?*Including Albemarle, Augusta, Charlottesville, Fluvanna, Greene, Louisa, Nelson, Waynesboro below the fold.*All market statistics that I have written can be found here.2007 information for the entire region.2006 information for the entire region.There is more to the above data that I am digging into for a later story.Waynesboro and Augusta are included because they are becoming more and more a part of our market, but the data remains quite incomplete.
Charlottesville’s Town Centers
Read this story: I Don’t Want to Consume Media that I Can’t Interact With.Hollymead Town Center up 29 North (near NGIC) A model town center, in Reston (Northern Virginia).For another look at Charlottesville’s town centers, see this post from May (and read the comments). A completely honest, non-snarky question – will residents of any of our area’s town centers say anything like this in forty years?I live in Reston, and unlike Columbia, it’s a roaring success, with both internal and external transit services, five village centers — one of which is usually within walking distance of most residents — and a fabulous Town Center (I don’t understand the reference to a “Midtown Town Center†— there’s only one) which is easily accessible by transit, auto, and for the numerous residents in the urban core, as pedestrians. I have lived here for forty years, so have observed the development almost from the beginning.The map below shows the town centers in the area.View Larger MapMore and more, people want to be able to walk “to stuff;” Hollymead Town Center does not yet qualify for that. So far, it has the feel of a glorified strip mall (with lots of stuff – Bonefish Grill, Target, Harris Teeter, etc) – you just need to drive everywhere.What’s the basis for this conclusion?And soon all of the construction will give way to a more relaxed, convenient and environmentally friendly way of life at Hollymead Town Center.Lastly, showing my ignorance, how will the the addition of a hotel make the site more vibrant and welcoming to residents?
October Market Report for Charlottesville/Albemarle
In short — Days on Market are up, year over year- Inventory in Charlottesville/Albemarle is slightly up, year over year. This may be a signal that we’re moving in the right direction.- Absorption Rate (the time it takes for the existing inventory to be churned) is up – anything over 5-6 months is considered to be a Buyer’s Market. 14 months of inventory in Charlottesville/Albemarle certainly fits that definition.- Buyer clients of mine made an offer on a very well-priced house in the City last week – and were one of four offers.- Properties are still selling, average sale price is still up.Buyers are buying and sellers are selling – the price and the property have to be right. Market data for the Charlottesville Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) – Charlottesville/Albemarle/Fluvanna/Greene/Louisa/Nelson after the jump.* Data is pulled from the Charlottesville Area Association of Realtors’ MLS – data is the best that is available, and is (by my ballpark estimations) about 85% accurate – both for inventory collected and data entry by the Realtors.
Charlottesville relocation map
Maps are plenty, but being able to fold one up and take it with you is something that the internet has not yet accomplished. All of the relocation packages I send out have color-coded (courtesy of Crayola) maps that highlight some of the most important landmarks and sub-regions of the Charlottesville/Albemarle area…. An important note is that from virtually every part of our area, commute times are under 45 minutes, which is a tolerable commute for many, especially those who are coming from larger metropolitan areas.The CharlAlbemarle area is becoming more and more segmented, and I break it down like this – – 29 North – 29 & 20 South- Crozet (West)- Pantops (East) – City of CharlottesvilleWithin the map, I have the Downtown Mall, the University of Virginia and my office location – three of the most well-known landmarks in the area (ok, my office is only well-known to my clients) … Each section has its own grocery store, (most) have a Starbucks, elementary schools, etc. Frequently residents of Crozet never have occasion to go to 29 North – why would they?
Best line of the day
– from today’s C-Ville….Unfortunately there’s more to the story.What a shame that this is one of the reasons that the Montessori School’s design was denied:”…How energy efficient a building is isn’t in our (the ARB) criteria. It’s unfortunate, but we’ve been charged by the supervisors to deal with the aesthetics of the entrance corridor.”Why not make the entrance reflect Charlottesville’s greener values? Note to those not familiar with the area – Pantops is an entrance corridor to the Charlottesville area, highlighting the boundaries between the City of Charlottesville and the surrounding County of Albemarle…. For example, this is from one of the County’s public hearings on their Green Building and Sustainability initiatives:As the Comprehensive Plan is a guide, staff believes this language will work to further establish the County’s commitment to green building and identify priorities in the context of long-range planning and community development.Why not LEED the way and show visitors that our area embraces and support green buildings and green lifestyles?
Vacancies, foreclosures and opportunity in Charlottesville
The vacancy rate for the Charlottesville area are fairly consistent over the last 18 months, with a slight uptick recently.The key words are market knowledge, adaptation and patience.For Charlottesville/Albemarle – there are 1395 active properties, with 490 properties being vacant (35%)…. Almost 400 of these show as vacant, while almost 300 of these vacant homes are new construction.For the entire market area, there are about 2,000 homes on the market, 600 of which are vacant, 450 of which are new construction.What does this data mean?Combine the local vacancy rate with today’s release of updated foreclosure data showing that, in the Commonwealth of Virginia (localized data not readily available), foreclosure activity is up nearly 500% (that has to be a typo) compared to the third quarter of 2006 and you have this:Unfortunately, there is going to be some pain felt in this market, and there are going to be some great opportunities for those willing and able to treat real estate investment the way it has traditionally been regarded – as a long term investment.The market is working – without a government bailout…. There are 47 vacant, active properties in Charlottesville/Albemarle that have been on the market for at least a year – think there might be some motivation in there somewhere?The inimitable Michael Cook says:If you read me often you know this is nothing new…. You could call this the calm before the perfect storm.For some local perspective: Vacancies in October 2006Vacancies in January 2007Vacancies in April 2007For a national perspective on vacancy rates since 1965 take a look at this graph:Of course, the United States population in 1965 was about 194 million.