After a closer look at the VAR’s July numbers, it seems that “median price†is really not at all indicative of market trends, which seem poor and getting worse with each passing month in this area.Consider, average days on the market of 86 marked an increase of nearly 50% from the same month in 2006 and 10% from June ‘07…. Dumping massive supply into a rapidly declining market doesn’t seem to make much economic sense.And from Luke:As a real estate amateur and an intelligence professional, I know one thing for certain, the Defense Intelligence Agency is moving a sizable portion of its operations to Charlottesville, creating a significant number of high-paying jobs and likely keeping prices inflated as they have been over the past few years, so I have no fear in buying a house right now, in fact I’m building one…. In short, the Dillon rule does indeed hinder our ability to manage growth, but the county is not without tools to address these issues.For that matter, Governor Kane [sic] has mentioned a willingness to work with local governments to give them more tools to address the issue of sprawl…. If we’re going to grow (and we seem to be) we should grow in the right areas, and we should grow in a smart manner – with infrastructure as well as houses.As noted on Brian Wheeler’s site last month:For the SFD permits detailed above (last 12 months), 61.4% were in rural areas and 20.25% were in the Crozet designated growth area …
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Foreclosures, Charlottesville and CNBC
It is not a nationwide issue.”From the Mortgage Bankers Association:These four states (California, Florida, Nevada and Arizona) have a disproportionately high share of investor loans, or loans to buyers who do not plan to live in the house. As of June 30, the non-owner occupied share of defaulted loans (90 days of more past due or in foreclosure) was 32 percent in Nevada, 25 percent in Florida, 26 percent in Arizona and 21 percent in California, compared with 13 percent in the rest of the nation. These investors are much more likely to default on their mortgages if they see the value of their investments falling due to falling home prices.Foreclosures in the Charlottesville area seem to be holding steady (there are only four listed this week in the HooK). The Virginia Association of Housing Counselors is commendably holding a “Foreclosure Summit” on 25 September (pdf); when I asked whether they had any data showing whether they had any accurate data on the current numbers of foreclosures or any projections on what the rate will be in 6 to 12 months, the answer was “no.”
Housing appreciation in the Charlottesville region – second quarter 2007
The OFHEO has recently released their study looking at housing data for the first two quarters of this year (PDF).“House prices were basically flat in the second quarter despite tightening credit policies, rising foreclosure rates, and weakening buyer sentiment,†said Lockhart…. To the extent that recent mortgage market instability may have affected housing demand and prices, those effects would be evident in OFHEO’s next HPI release.The chart at the right, courtesy of housedata.info, shows the appreciation rate of the Charlottesville housing market since 1985.For the Charlottesville MSA,Our national ranking is 102The one-year rate of appreciation is 4.66%The second-quarter appreciation is .71%The five-year appreciation rate is 71%The number that should be of most importance to most people is the five year rate of appreciation – the timeframe by which most people should now be basing their purchasing decisions.For some context, in September of 2006, the Charlottesville MSA’s 5-year appreciation rate was 79.93% and our national ranking was 64. In 2Q of 2004, our 5-year appreciation rate was 52.86%, 2Q 2002 was 41.93%, and 2Q 2000 was 19.8%In short, with all the turmoil that is happening right now, housing likely will remain a good long-term investment for most people…. *These numbers do not necessarily reflect new-home cancellations.*The Charlottesville Metropolitan Statistical Area consists of Albemarle, Charlottesville, Fluvanna, Greene and Nelson Counties*The Case-Shiller home price index does not track the Charlottesville market specifically (PDF) – while it is an excellent source, using the Washington metro area to draw correlations to our market would be silly.
Soccer schedules, local elections and affordability – 08-15-2007
noted that the city’s goal is to have 15 percent of units in a project be reserved at affordable rates, or a commensurate amount of money donated to a nonprofit.C-ville’s “Best Of” mapped out; alas, there was no “Best Realtor” category.Get ready for the surge of election coverage…. A lot of money is being raised and spent.You can’t go back home again, especially apparently to CrozetUVA’s soccer schedules have been released…. Add the Men’s Soccer schedule to your calendar by downloading this and the Women’s Soccer schedule by downloading this. (my first attempt at doing this, so do so at your own peril 🙂 )Homebuyers with good credit find it harder to get a loanTaking your house public (!)
July’s housing numbers for the Charlottesville region
I think that this tactic provides better perspective on the real estate market; this traditionally illiquid market needs to be considered on at least an annual basis, rather than a month-to-month or weekly basis.Sales are fairly consistent this year, and average list and sales prices are up over the three year period…. Inventory levels and absorption rates remain very high, but properties are selling.2004 Sold – Charlottesville & Albemarle – Single Family homes, attached homes and condos2007 Sold – Charlottesville & Albemarle – Single Family homes, attached homes and condosSales are down in Charlottesville/Albemarle when comparing 2004 to 2007 – 28%.One of the prevailing arguments has been that condos skew the numbers; depending on which argument you’re making, they prop the market up by providing affordable housing (which they do) or they skew the numbers and make it appear that sales are artificially high (which they do in certain price ranges) Removing the condos from the equation:2004 Sold – Charlottesville & Albemarle – Single Family homes and attached homes2007 Sold – Charlottesville & Albemarle – Single Family homes and attached homesJune and July have significant differences between 2004 and 2007…. I have been involved in several multiple offer situations over the past few months (few of which have been at the listing price) but still, there is quantifiable demand in our market.Why do I look at the housing data so often and from so many angles? (I don’t publish everything I study) For at least two reasons – it helps me to understand the market better and thusly helps me represent my clients – both buyers and sellers – much more effectively.Disclaimer: New construction numbers are notoriously unreliable, as many sales are put into the MLS after the contract has been signed, if ever at all.
Good and bad Charlottesville lists
The Charlottesville area is a great place to visit for the wine, so says Travel and Leisure.Virginia’s wineries are concentrated in two areas: one near ÂCharlottesville, the other within an hour’s drive of Dulles Airport…. The state had been trading on the grape-growing reputation of noted wine lover Thomas Jefferson for 200 years without producing anything worthy of mention…. And a single meal verified that it should be on the must-visit list of any adventurous wine traveler.Both happened at the same place, Barboursville Vineyards, just outside Charlottesville …Virginia is the Best State for BusinessNot that Virginia did badly–it just didn’t dominate the rankings the way it did last year…. Virginia’s top attributes include an incentive environment that is the fourth-best in the country, according to Pollina Corporate Real Estate, a commercial real estate consulting firm, as well as an unemployment rate that’s the third lowest in the nation.But the Charlottesville MSA apparently is a risky place to get a loan if you’re a minority.Update: the conversation at cvillenews continues to be interesting.
Charlottesville Neighborhoods – Woolen Mills
Located East of the Downtown Mall and flanked by largely by 250 East and 20 South and more specifically is “bounded on the north by East High Street…. Biking distance to the Downtown Mall and Pantops for shopping (although driving to Pantops would be a better route if you’re concerned with self-preservation) and a very active homeowners’ organization (not Association) Albemarle Historical Society:“The Woolen Mills neighborhood is one of the earliest textile mill villages in the South, and though the neighborhood is threatened by development pressures, it remains largely intact,†says Historical Society executive director Dr. Douglas Day. “This exhibit is a labor of love, by a neighborhood with a mission, it is the kind of project we’d like to encourage from each of the area’s historic neighborhoods.â€Topography: Gently rolling hillsHousing Prices: Unfortunately, there is no good way to search for homes for sale in the Woolen Mills area, other than looking at the results and knowing which streets are within the Woolen Mills ‘hood…. Meade Park is quite closeBroadband Internet Coverage: 100%- A recent podcast- A little bit of political controversy.- They have their own website.- Charlottesville Community Design Center- The Neighborhood Plan laid out by the City (PDF)Don’t miss one of the coolest displays of housing data there is, showing growth over the past 100 years.For those residents of Woolen Mills – what do you love about your neighborhood?