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Albemarle County Schools’ Populations Are Growing. Unexpectedly. ?!

in Albemarle Education on

Is anyone other than the politicians surprised?

The question is – would you support an Adequate Public Facility ordinance?

Aaron Richardson at the Daily Progress reports:

Some Albemarle County schools could exceed their capacity sooner than expected, thanks to rapid growth.

Supervisor Ken Boyd curiously chooses the word “adequately” when referring to funding*

“We’re committed to providing adequate educational opportunities in this county, but we’re going to have to look at what other capital improvement projects we have going on,” Boyd said. “We’d have to take a more holistic view than, ‘Gee, have we got $46 million more to spend on education?’”

“Curious” because either:

1 – He thinks the County should offer merely “adequate” education rather than “world class”.*

2 – He’s laying the groundwork for a conversation about adequate public facilities (which tend to be opposed by Realtors) , the long-debated ordinance that would essentially prevent new homes’ construction before adequate infrastructure/fire & rescue/school/etc was in place.

Better schools increase house prices.

At some point, the politicians and the people need to understand that our population is growing, and they need to plan accordingly.

What is an adequate public facilities ordinance? I found the following definition in 2005:

An Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance (APFO) is a law adopted by the local government that allows it to defer the approval of developments based upon a finding by the governing body that public facilities would not be not adequate to support the proposed development at build out.

What are the components of an effective APF ordinance?

• Identifies the types of public facilities to be considered.

• Limits the period of time during which the deferral on development imposed by an APFO can be in force.

• Requires the locality to have in place a capital facilities plan to remedy the infrastructure inadequacy that has been the basis for the development deferral.

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Charlottesville MSA – Single Family & Attached Homes Placed Under Contract – First Five Months

in Albemarle Charlottesville Market statistics on

Note: if you have formatting issues, please let me know; I’m trying to embed the interactive charts, but have had issues with them in the past. They may go away without notice.

– Barry Ritholtz asks – How bad is housing?

– Case Shiller says:

– Consumer Reports says: Home prices have slid more than during the Great Depression

– The Wall Street Journal says: Why It’s Time to Buy

What does all of that mean if you’re trying to figure out what’s happening in the Charlottesville, Virginia real estate market?

Let’s look at the data*:

What I’m seeing:

– There is no consistency in the market, except for a few truisms.
– Things that shouldn’t sell do.
– Things that should sell don’t.
– Buyers are buying with minimum 5 to 7 year time frames in mind, and many are looking for 10 – 15 years.
– Buyers are being very selective, because they can be.
– Some buyers are looking for attached homes that have little to no maintenance; but … high HOA fees are deterring buyers. $200+/month is not a good thing (usually).

Truisms:

– Properties must be priced right in order to have a good chance of selling.
– Properties must be in as close to perfect condition in order to solicit the best offers from those seeking to (and many are) pay a fair value.
– Price + Condition = Good chance of selling.
– Sometimes the price is right, the condition is right, but the buyer just isn’t there. yet.
– Market capitulation isn’t quite here yet.
– Inconsistency rules.

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Charlottesville and Albemarle Need to Stabilize Population?

in Albemarle Charlottesville Growth Politics on

ASAP says their research at this point is still insufficient to identify a specific optimal population for the community. However, faced with a limited supply of natural resources, Marshall said housing is the key piece of community infrastructure that needs to be limited to reduce demand.

I’m sure that Fluvanna, Greene, Nelson, Louisa and the other surrounding counties would love to have Charlottesville/Albemarle place caps on housing starts. … CharlAlbemarle would then have traffic coming into the urban ring without the benefit of property taxes (which don’t cover the cost of housing). – How does one define “optimum population” and what are the consequences for exceeding said optimum population ? – Maybe we could also institute congestion pricing as they have in London (really not a bad idea) instead of a moat. – Would we restrict services to residents if they weren’t in the urban ring and didn’t pay a fire or rescue fee ?

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