Charlottesville's Real Estate Blog. Buyer &/or Seller Representation, Real Estate News
I stopped by Beer Run this afternoon (those not in Charlottesville – it’s more than beer!) to pick up a gift and noticed that the City Walk apartments are well underway. That’s a lot of dirt.
More about City Walk at Charlottesville Tomorrow (including the site plan).
The apartment boom that is currently underway is going to change the Charlottesville real estate landscape – significantly.
I’m still working my way through the new report produced by Advocates for a Sustainable Population (ASAP) in which they quantify the costs of growth (it’s a lot) and describe how adequately growth pays for itself (it doesn’t).
Growth is expensive, and costly – environmental, quality of life, general change – but what are the solutions? Other than more taxes, (a local income tax? Seriously?) specific solutions aren’t proposed. What exactly is an “informed population polic(y)”?
Keep in mind that this is the group that wants to limit populations (of Charlottesville and Albemarle).
You’ve heard of how Charlottesville used to be a (relatively) well-kept secret, and how as soon as someone moved here they’d want to close to the gates and keep others from moving in? The author of the study fits that mold; he moved here in 2007.
Personally, I’ve struggled with the growth of my hometown* for years and my internal struggles haven’t abated. Intelligent implementation of building, infrastructure, etc is crucial, but these are things that seemingly local (and state, and national) governments fail at implementing every day. What are the solution? I don’t know, but a cap on population seems short-sighted and more difficult to implement than building the Meadowcreek Parkway.
If you’re short on time, read ASAP’s 5 page Executive summary.
Update: Neil Williamson of the Free Enterprise Forum offers a strong rebuttal of the ASAP report.
I’m going to be running numbers next week – give some time for realtors to enter the closings in the Charlottesville MLS and for the delayed (there are so many*) closings to finally close.
This is just a primer for what is likely to be a long and comprehensive post next week.
Contracts written 5/1/11 – 6/28/11:
Single Family Homes in Charlottesville and Albemarle : 213
Attached homes in Charlottesville and Albemarle: 70
Condos in Charlottesville and Albemarle: 51
Contracts written 5/1/12 – 6/28/12:
Single Family Homes in Charlottesville and Albemarle : 255 (up 16%)
Attached homes in Charlottesville and Albemarle: 70
Condos in Charlottesville and Albemarle: 32 (down 37%)
Looking at the above data, a quick conclusion could be reached that more buyers are shifting towards purchasing single family homes as home prices have dropped. Next week, I’ll separate the City from the County, product mixes, and the rest of the Charlottesville MSA.
These numbers are likely representative, but not an entirely accurate picture of the Charlottesville real estate market because most closings tend to happen at the end of the month … come back next week.
Closed sales 5/1/11 – 6/28/11:
Single Family Homes in Charlottesville and Albemarle : 230
Attached homes in Charlottesville and Albemarle: 74
Condos in Charlottesville and Albemarle: 41
Closed sales 5/1/12 – 6/28/12:
Single Family Homes in Charlottesville and Albemarle : 229
Attached homes in Charlottesville and Albemarle: 60
Condos in Charlottesville and Albemarle: 36
Charlottesville 29 is a fantastic new blog asking (and answering) the question – If there were just 29 restaurants in Charlottesville, what would be the ideal 29?
I found this blog when it was shared by a friend on some social network. I remember that he pointed out what is possibly the most comprehensive, definitive depiction of the Charlottesville institution known as Bodo’s. It’s a fascinating read.
When you are in Charlottesville, going to Bodo’s is just something you do. Bodo’s is so embedded in our culture that it has become a Charlottesville institution tocall Bodo’s a “Charlottesville institution.†In a city of 43,000 people, Bodo’s has a Facebook page with 15,000 “Likes.â€
Still not convinced? Consider this. Combined, Bodo’s three locations feed close to 6,000 people per day. That’s nearly 500 per hour that they are open. Or, seven per minute.
I’m looking forward to reading more in my now-pared-down daily reading.
* I wonder how many of those 43k “likes” are from the City. 🙂
Western Bypass rendering, courtesy Charlottesville Tomorrow
It seems that the Western Bypass may actually be built.
Charlottesville Tomorrow reports that the contract to build the Western Bypass has been awarded.
Is this the right road? Probably not. It needs to go farther up 29 North rather than dump into the middle of the growth area – you know, to actually bypass the mess – but it won’t, because of our region’s collective inability to do anything with infrastructure efficiency.
So, we’ll get a sort-of-bypass.
Lynchburg has been advocating for the Bypass for decades, but their representative fairly well sums up the state of affairs:
Lynchburg’s representative on the CTB said it was time to move forward with the contract. “This is the plan, this is as good as we got, [and] this is as good as it’s going to get,†said Mark Peake. “This is far from being a road to nowhere. This is a road from North Carolina to Washington, D.C.â€
And so we move. Forward?
For background, see Charlottesville Tomorrow’s incomparable coverage:
– Charlottesville Tomorrow’s Western Bypass section.
What is a view worth? In a lot of ways, a view is unZillowable – how does one quantify a great view?
What is a “great view”? Mountains? Urban life? Both?
Charlottesville has quite a few condos; (for these purposes, we’re not talking about condo conversions which are occasionally challenged). While we obviously have neither the volume, scale, nor heights or prices of New York City real estate, we can draw parallels from their market and analyses.
Starting with the advice given by appraiser Jonathan Miller who explained to Brick Underground:
“how he correlates dollar figures to floor numbers.
“When it comes to floor level adjustments, we separate floor height and view into two separate amenities,” he says. “The floor level adjustment reflects the actual and perceived changes in natural light, street noise and security.”
The adjustment is bigger when comparing a second-floor apartment to a first-floor apartment.
Depending on market conditions, he says, “a typical adjustment might be 1% per floor before considering view differences. That’s 1% of the price of the unit you are comparing it to.”
So – higher is better. Lower is less better. 🙂
Candidly, I don’t think we have the market to allow for application of that type of analysis. For better or worse, the Charlottesville market is one in which “floor premiums per se don’t factor in as much as what the buyer is willing to pay and the seller is willing to accept. I always do a specific data analysis when evaluating condos, but ultimately if the buyer is seeking X and the seller will accept Y, data aside, a meeting of the minds likely won’t be found.
But, I still find the analysis provided by Noah Rosenblatt’s analysis at Urban Digs insightful and potentially applicable to the Charlottesville condo market.
There are two main elements in figuring out what kind of floor multiplier you should use when doing a comps analysis to what hopefully is a same-line sale (same footprint, different floor): TYPE OF CHANGE IN VIEW and AMOUNT OF GAP IN FLOORS.
TYPE OF CHANGE IN VIEW: When comparing two in-building same line comparable units we need to determine the level of change in the view quality. In other words, is there a drastic difference in the view or is there no difference in view? Lets take two hypothetical examples to explain this point:
What does this segment of the Charlottesville real estate market look like? A few examples:
The Waterhouse – still under construction, still not selling as far as I know. But they’re going to be getting another floor, so their floor premiums may go up – as may their prices. I’d wager that per-square-foot these are going to be the most expensive condos Charlottesville’s ever seen. (there’s likely a story or two to be written about this project)
The Gleason – Great condos in downtown Charlottesville, about two blocks off the Downtown Mall
The Barringer – Perhaps the best-located UVA condos.
The Holsinger – located right on the Downtown Mall, among the highest-priced condos in Charlottesville
I’ve represented a couple buyers in the Gleason and have taken a few photos while there.
Which view would you value more?
Hint: the first one is the 5th floor; the second is the 4th.
“I had four closings last week, and three were delayed because of the banks.”
“I had three closings this week and they’re all screwed up because of the banks.”
“Our movers said that every single one of their moves was delayed because of the banks.”
These are just a few stories I’ve heard over the past month. Parts of the Charlottesville real estate market are picking up, but one aspect that is adding tremendous frustration to the process is the lending side of the equation.
There are a lot of variables that can affect a real estate closing, but there is one truism – don’t schedule your move for the day of, or the day after (and to be safe, wait at least two days) closing. In Charlottesville, you don’t get the keys until the transaction is recorded.
This is not personal; most of the lenders are really nice. The system right now could justifiably be construed as a disaster. The “system” being those people who touch the loans is a mess. From the lender to the processor to the underwriter to the closers, the system is screwy. So …
Be prepared. Be prepared to be patient, to answer more questions than ever before – from multiple years of tax returns to a copy of your college diploma – if the lenders ask for it, it’s not because they want to annoy you, it’s because that’s what the system tells them to do. If they ask for it three times – that’s a pretty clear indication that the system is broken; don’t fight it, just do it.
From The Perfect Loan File in Forbes: (read the whole thing)
It all comes down to your proof. If the lender asks for a specific document, give them exactly what they are asking for, not what “should be OK,†– because it won’t be. This is where the approval process tends to go off the rails, when the lender asks for specific documentation and the borrower supplies something else. Here, too, is where both sides get frustrated. So if the lender asks for a bank statement and there are 5 pages for that bank statement, send them all 5 pages, and not just the summary. If you send them the summary page and they ask again, don’t complain that the lender keeps asking for the same thing when you never sent it in the first place. This may sound elementary, but the vast majority of mortgage approval process woes stem from scenarios just like this.
Why are lenders being so much more redundantly, infuriatingly stringent? Because they need to be able to sell their loans on the secondary mortgage market (you know – Fannie and Freddie). Now that there is some risk associated with making loans, lenders are being overly cautious. Related: How to Explain the Mortgage Crisis to an 8th Grader.
Such is life. Knee-jerk reactions are human nature (see: HVCC). We’ll get through this, but for now, be prepared for frustration, and use a lender you trust; I greatly prefer local lenders (with one exception).