Charlottesville's Real Estate Blog. Buyer &/or Seller Representation, Real Estate News
Read it, download it, critique it. I’ll be posting a direct link to the PDF later today.
Nest Realty’s Nest Report is out – a comprehensive look at “where we are” right now in the Charlottesville real estate market.
Click through to download the report.
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The first half of the year is over. That was fun, right? Coming next week (hopefully by Wednesday) – a comprehensive look at how the Charlottesville real estate market performed in the first half of 2011. I’ll be looking at data that matters to me, and to my clients.
Bear with me … I’m trying to make sense of the market.
Continuing my theme of looking at the Charlottesville real estate market data from a longer point of view, lest we track the housing market too closely …
It seems that we’re back (broadly) at 2004 – 2005 housing prices in Charlottesville.
Single family home median prices for Charlottesville MSA:
Attached home median prices for Charlottesville MSA:
I left off Greene and Louisa as they have negligible attached home inventories.
I look at too much data. I admit it. In this post, I’m posing just a question – when looking at the past ten years of real estate data** in the Charlottesville, Virginia area, what is a “normal” level of real estate transactions and is there a correlation between transactions and population growth? And how can my buyer and seller clients (and readers) apply this knowledge?
My hypothesis is that once we achieve a stable, consistent volume of real estate transactions – equilibrium if you will – we’ll be able to definitively say that we reached “bottom” or “stagnation” and start to consider such things as “appreciation of real estate values.”
“We Don’t Know What We Don’t Know” – from August 2009.
And Government is still intervening and failing miserably, spectacularly and consistently. Come to think of it, the only consistency in the real estate market is that the government is consistency screwing things up.
But hey, why should we worry?
I’ve written a lot, looked at a lot, and analyzed a lot. Over the past two days, I have looked at real estate market data specific to the Charlottesville MSA for nearly six hours (and I still have quite a bit yet to come, including updated median sales price numbers).* I’ve written thousands of words, and thought that a summary post may be useful.
Part One: Charlottesville MSA – Single Family & Attached Homes Placed Under Contract – First Five Months
Part Two: Charlottesville Real Estate Market Update: Transaction Volume for 2000 – 2011
Part Three: What’s Selling in Charlottesville? Single Family, Attached homes or Condos?
Even this real estate analysis is too broad; to really know what’s happening, you (and I) need to study the market segment relevant to you. Every segment is different and unique.
Broadly:
– Single family homes in Charlottesville MSA: sales up 1.5%, median sales price down 4%
– Attached homes in Charlottesville MSA: sales down 16%, median sales price down 3%
– Condos in Charlottesville MSA: sales down 17%, median sales price down 3.5%
Note: if you have formatting issues, please let me know; I’m trying to embed the interactive charts, but have had issues with them in the past. They may go away without notice.
– Barry Ritholtz asks – How bad is housing?
– Consumer Reports says: Home prices have slid more than during the Great Depression
– The Wall Street Journal says: Why It’s Time to Buy
What does all of that mean if you’re trying to figure out what’s happening in the Charlottesville, Virginia real estate market?
Let’s look at the data*:
What I’m seeing:
– There is no consistency in the market, except for a few truisms.
– Things that shouldn’t sell do.
– Things that should sell don’t.
– Buyers are buying with minimum 5 to 7 year time frames in mind, and many are looking for 10 – 15 years.
– Buyers are being very selective, because they can be.
– Some buyers are looking for attached homes that have little to no maintenance; but … high HOA fees are deterring buyers. $200+/month is not a good thing (usually).
Truisms:
– Properties must be priced right in order to have a good chance of selling.
– Properties must be in as close to perfect condition in order to solicit the best offers from those seeking to (and many are) pay a fair value.
– Price + Condition = Good chance of selling.
– Sometimes the price is right, the condition is right, but the buyer just isn’t there. yet.
– Market capitulation isn’t quite here yet.
– Inconsistency rules.