Posts tagged Market statistics

May 2012 Charlottesville Real Estate Market Report

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Dig in. There’s some good news here.

Download the Nest Report for May 2012 here  or read it below.

Of the 189 homes that sold in the Charlottesville MSA since 1 April 2012 with CDOM of less than 30 days:

– the % of list to sell price was about 95%

Of the 213 homes that sold in the same timeframe with CDOM of at least 120 days:

– the % of list to sell price was about 94%.

That looks like price doesn’t matter … until one keeps in mind that in the previous wildly broad and potentially inaccurate perspective, the list to sell ratio data can be so easily skewed.

If you’re looking at the Charlottesville – Albemarle real estate market, focus on your market – your segment of the market. That $1.95 million dollar house above? It’s as relevant to the $245k attached home as the fishing report on Saturn is to whether I’ll catch a fish this weekend.

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April 2012 Charlottesville Real Estate Market Report

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Highlights:

– Days on Market (an inherently flawed data point) are down in Charlottesville, Albemarle and Fluvanna.

– Average Sales prices are down (not surprising)

– Total sales across the MSA are down (not surprising)

Thoughts/initial conclusions:

– More buyers are looking to be closer in/closer to stuff

– Good properties are selling and selling quickly

– Interest rates remain low – a good thing for buyers.

– I think we may have pulled the spring market forward a bit; the early spring may have pulled transactions into the earlier months of the year.

Dead simple Takeaways:

– Buyers: do your due diligence, don’t let emotion enter the equation and make sound, rationale decisions with the intent of holding the property for at least five to seven years

– Sellers: do your due diligence and realize that buyers most often don’t have to buy, but want to buy – it’s your job to make them want to buy your house. This means: price, presentation, perfection … and a great location and setting.

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I’ll Know Housing Recovery in Charlottesville When I’ve Seen It

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The housing recovery in Charlottesville (and presumably everywhere, but knowing this market is hard enough) is kind of like pornography.

I shall not today attempt further to define the kinds of material I understand to be embraced within that shorthand description [“hard-core pornography”]; and perhaps I could never succeed in intelligibly doing so. But I know it when I see it, and the motion picture involved in this case is not that. [Emphasis added.]

—Justice Potter Stewart, concurring opinion in Jacobellis v. Ohio 378 U.S. 184 (1964), regarding possible obscenity in The Lovers.

How will the “recovery” be defined? Is now the time to buy? (or sell?)

First, we’ll know by hindsight. When we have the luxury and the benefit of 12 to 24 months of looking back, we’ll be able to tell.

Transactions – volume of transactions – what is normal volume of sales transactions in the Charlottesville MSA? I don’t know; homeownership rates are declining. Last year, 1755 single family homes sold in the Charlottesville MSA (including Louisa). In 2002, 2479 single family homes sold. I’d put the “sustainable” rate of single family home sales somewhere in between those two numbers.

Price – stability or appreciation showing themselves

Foreclosures and short sales – fewer than today to none.

Shadow inventory – known and dispensed with; no longer a question of uncertainty.

So … is the housing market in Charlottesville recovering?

Calculated Risk says:

The debate is now about the strength of the recovery, not whether there is a recovery. My view is housing will remain sluggish for some time, and I expect 2012 to be another historically weak year, but better than 2011.

Maybe.

Consider this snapshot, from which I’m trying to :

In Charlottesville and Albemarle:

– 107 homes went under contract between 15 April and 1 May 2011. 64 of those were single family. 23 were attached.

– 144 homes went under contract between 15 April and 1 May 2012 – a 26% increase! – 92 (30% more) were single family. 23 were attached.

In the Charlottesville MSA (Charlottesville, Albemarle, Fluvanna, Greene, Louisa, Nelson):

– 156 homes went under contract between 15 April and 1 May 2011. 109 (70%) were single family.

– 186 homes went under contract between 15 April and 1 May 2012. 132 (71%) of those were single family.

That sure looks like we’re on the path to recovery, right?

In the MSA in the above timeframe, 22 of those contracts in 2011 were either short sales or foreclosures (6 & 16, respectively). In 2012, 19 of those were short sales or foreclosures (8 & 11, respectively). “A 14% decline in distressed contracts!” surely is a better headline than “3“, right?

It’s too early to tell with respect to foreclosures/short sales/distressed sales

Charlottesville Foreclosure Rate and Foreclosure Activity Information | RealtyTrac

My personal favorite:

“When will U.S. house prices recover? Likely never. But that’s no reason not to buy.” and believe it or not, the article reaches some salient conclusions, echoed by many if not most of my recent buyer clients’ decisions –

That’s why prospective buyers should stop focusing on the vague hope that house prices will jump from here and focus instead on the functional value houses provide for the money. In most markets, they provide enough of that to make buying a good deal.

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1st Quarter 2012 Charlottesville Area Real Estate Market Report

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As always, pay attention to the segment or segments that affect you. There is no “the market is up” or “the market is down.” Condos in the City of Charlottesville near the Downtown Mall are different than single family homes in Greene County – different trends, different factors affecting them, different economic engines and hubs, different schools, different property taxes … you get the picture.

I’ll be adding to this post this evening but wanted to get this out before my afternoon appointment. (priorities, you know?)

Nest Realty’s First Quarter 2012 market report (download the pdf)

Q1 2012 Charlottesville Real Estate Market Report

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There Is No Answer to “How’s the Real Estate Market in Charlottesville?”

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I’ve said it before:

– When Evaluating the Charlottesville Real Estate Market, IGNORE National Data

– When Assessing the Charlottesville Real Estate Market, Read More than the Headlines

and here’s a taste of how conflicted my news feed and streams are –

Making Sense of Headlines – My Conflicted Inbox

I’ve been saying this to clients for the past couple of days; in light of today’s Case Shiller report I thought I’d share what I’m seeing:

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Charlottesville Real Estate Market February Update

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Contracts are up in the Charlottesville area – significantly. Prices are down, inventory is down, sales are up. There is some positivity in the market; multiple offers, while not “the norm” are definitely common.

As I’ve said to clients: properties that are priced well*, in great condition, and in great locations tend to be selling well.

Nest Report – Feb 2012

I’m still trying to make time to run a few different numbers – breakdown of property type, etc. I’m doing these for my clients on property-specific instances frequently) but haven’t been able to do it for here …

* Priced well is part science, part art, part data analytics and part luck, sometimes not in equal proportions.

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