Posts tagged Market statistics

Interesting New Market Report – Some Positivity in the (Macro & Micro) Market

in Market statistics on

One of the best parts of this Housing Prospects 50 States Release March 12 2012

One of the things I said in the Newsplex story is that any market analysis that is broader than a street or neighborhood is too broad to make an informed and educated decision.

Excerpting from the report won’t do it justice; if you’re interested, download the pdf and read it.

The one quibble I would make is that depending on Zillow for local analysis with respect to the Charlottesville MSA is perhaps not the best idea; but from a macro perspective, they’re worthwhile.

Perhaps the best part of the report is this – William Lucy states the need for local analysis and local perspectives. The housing system may be broken, but the solution is not a one-size-fits-all

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Contracts in Charlottesville and Albemarle are up (February 2012)

in Albemarle Charlottesville General Real Estate Market statistics on

The NAR released their Pending Sales report this morning.

As we know, national data doesn’t matter so much.

So, I looked at the homes put under contract in Charlottesville and Albemarle for the past few months.

Pendings in Charlottesville and Albemarle 2010 - 2011 - 2012

But … keep in mind that things are so very mixed. I’ve been showing homes in the $550k – $800k range for the past few days. Of the past five properties we’ve seen:

– One is a short sale

– One is a foreclosure

– Three are regular sales

* Data from the Charlottesville MLS

** “Right Now” is 27 February around 10:30. From Open Space. I’ll update the chart after February.

Updated on 3 March. Contracts in February 2012 in Charlottesville and Albemarle are up just over 68%.

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Charlottesville People – Do you Care What the National Association of Realtors Say?

in General Real Estate Market statistics on

I know I’m a broken record. I get a tremendous amount of value from the National Association of Realtors – from their publications (On Common Ground is tremendous), to the lobbying they do to the information they share … but as far as home sales data and projections, I don’t understand why there is so much gnashing of teeth and complaining about the NAR’s projections and data. The NAR is a trade organization for Realtors. I’m not bashing the NAR, but I would like to see their analysis put in the appropriate context.

Understanding the Charlottesville area real estate market is a full-time job – representing buyers and sellers, analyzing the market, etc.; making sense of the nation’s housing market – I’d go so far as to say it’s impossible to do accurately or credibly.

For a brief summary of where we are in Charlottesville:

Nest’s January 2012 Real Estate Summary

Nest’s 2012 Annual Report

And the “Market Statistics” category in RealCentralVA. Or, better yet, if you have a question about the market, start your research looking at the broader market statistics and then, ask me.

To see the responses to the title question from those on Twitter, read the rest of the story.

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Calculated Risk calls the Bottom of the Real Estate Market

in Market statistics on

First there are two bottoms for housing. The first is for new home sales, housing starts and residential investment. The second bottom is for prices. Sometimes these bottoms can happen years apart.

…
For new home sales and housing starts, it appears the bottom is in, and I expect an increase in both starts and sales in 2012.

I place a great deal of credibility in Calculated Risk; I’ve learned a tremendous amount there over the years. I’m not certain the bottom is quite here in the Charlottesville area, but I’m inclined to think we’re close.

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Case Shiller Doesn’t Track Charlottesville’s MSA – or – Nest Realty’s 4th Quarter Report

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Five year trend of sales activity in the Charlottesville MSA

I’ve said it before. Case Shiller’s Perspective on the Charlottesville real estate market summed up in one phrase: it doesn’t exist.

As I said this morning on Google+ –

So we’re getting ready to widely release Nest Realty’s 4th Quarter 2012 Nest Report … there’s some interesting data and analysis in there.

Combined with the reports I’m hearing from agents about the massive traffic at open houses, I’m thinking that *pockets* of the Charlottesville – Albemarle real estate markets are likely to see some stability & even price increases this year.

As far as Case-Shiller and the NAR? They don’t track our market. They’re good insofar as they give insight into other markets and their respective psychological impacts are interesting but not particularly relevant to our local market.

Here’s Nest’s 4th Quarter report – (Download your copy of the PDF here)

What we’re seeing is this:

– Buyer activity is up. Way up, over the past few months and years

– Multiple offers on desirable properties are becoming almost common place

– Foreclosures and short sales are going to be with us for a long time

– Buyers want to buy. They just don’t want to buy crap or overpriced homes.

– (some) Sellers are becoming more realistic.

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There is No “New Normal” in the Real Estate Market

in Albemarle Charlottesville Market statistics on

“Normal” is “now”.

Homeownership Rates - via Calculated Risk

– Human settlement patterns (where people are living and working)

– Gas prices

– Expectation of permanence/transience

– Interest rates

– Property tax rates

– Monetary supply

– The internet’s availability and impact

Those are just a few of the ways that 1999 differs from 2011, and makes application of “normal” challenging.

Here’s something that hasn’t changed – people need homes. Buying a house is a choice, and one that comes with greater responsibility than renting – you’re accepting on the maintenance, the permanence, the mortgage, the community, the risk. If you’re not ready for those, don’t buy a house. If you’re ready to buy a home, do your due diligence and consider it.

“New normal” is a shifting term, applicable to virtually every evolving industry.

Heck, I’ve been seeking “new normal” for years.

But I thought I’d look at the data and briefly compare the 1999 Charlottesville area real estate market with the 2011 one … keeping in mind that so many things are different, thus negating in a lot of ways the comparisons.

1999 to 2011 - all home types

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